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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220126093416.468FC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 09:34:16 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260934
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N84W to 06N94W to 07N100W to=20
09N105W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to a monsoon trough axis that continues to low=20
pressure near 09N111W 1010 mb to another low pressure near=20
08N120W 1011 mb and to 07N125W, where the scatterometer data
denotes that it becomes the ITCZ and continues to 06N131W and
to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen=20
within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 107W-110W, and
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 108W-110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Overnight partial ASCAT data passes reveal light to gentle winds
across most of the Mexico offshore waters, with moderate=20
northwest to north winds observed offshore Cabo Corrientes and=20
downstream from there to near 18N. Moderate west winds are noted=20
near the coast of Oaxaca. Wave heights are 6-8 ft offshore Baja=20
California due to a west to northwest swell, 1-2 ft in the Gulf=20
of California except in the southern section and 5-7 ft elsewhere
due to a west to northwest swell.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell west of Baja=20
California will slowly subside through Fri. Strong north winds=20
are expected to begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning=20
lasting through Thu night. Thereafter, gap winds to gale-force=20
speeds are possible over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri=20
night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of=20
Mexico into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate=20
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and lasting=20
through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong northwest winds are
likely in the Gulf of California late Thu night through Fri=20
night.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Overnight ASCAT data passes reveal that the earlier fresh northeast
to east gap winds across the Papagayo region have diminished to=20
gentle to moderate speeds, while light to gentle variable winds=20
along with wave heights of 4-6 ft are elsewhere, except for=20
moderate to fresh north winds in the Gulf of Panama.=20

For the forecast, the gentle to moderate northeast to east gap=20
winds across the Papagayo region will pulse back up to strong=20
speeds this morning, continue through Thu, then again Sat night=20
through Mon. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds will continue=20
in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night, then return to the area=20
Sat night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should remain=20
tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest swell from an
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event will infiltrate
the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sat and Sat=20
night building the wave heights to a range of about 9-13 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly light to
gentle winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 23N132W
to low pressure near 19N135W 1014 mb and to 16N139W. Broad mid=20
to upper-level troughing is present north of 10N between 130W-=20
140W. Divergence aloft to the east of the trough is sustaining an
area of scattered moderate convection located roughly from 14N=20
to 18N between 121W-124W, and an area of moderate rain with=20
embedded numerous showers and possible isolated thunderstorms
from 17N to 23N between 125W-131W. This activity is quickly
shifting east-northeast. Northwest swell is producing=20
significant wave heights peaking at 8 ft over the waters
from about 06N to 30N and between 117W-140W. Wave heights are=20
5-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay by Thu=20
afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the=20
basin through Fri. Looking ahead, a surface trough is likely to=20
amplify over the open high seas near 126W/127W during the
weekend. It will be accompanied by fresh to strong northeast
to east winds along with building seas within an area roughly
bounded from 10N-22N and between 123W-134W. Please refer to
future high seas forecasts issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text=
/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!oWgAd1hrGYUxUwZl1Si9cCvLZSjQQtMxPiohHBhsT9auFck=
6hWrEcC0TcpuqgR_WpB7I-z4m$=20=20
that will contain specific marine details on this upcoming feature.

$$
Aguirre


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