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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220126121205.BDB5C1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 12:12:05 +0000
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955 
AWIO20 FMEE 261209

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/26 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Last warnings WTIO24 and WTIO30 FMEE 016/01 issued at 12UTC yesterday on overland depression ANA.

New warning WTIO30 001/02 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Disturbance no02-20212022.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.


PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow remained present over the entire width of the basin and fed an active Monsoon Trough (MT) located at 11oS between 60 and 90oE. The convective activity is strong to very strong within this MT especially east of 70oE east of the Chagos but also over the extreme east of the basin where the Disturbed Zone followed since Monday has become this morning the Tropical Disturbance 02-20212022. The filtered products of the wind in the low levels show that a crossing of the MJO and equatorial Rossby waves is currently in progress over the Indian Ocean.

In the Mozambique Channel, the monsoon flow is confined along the African coast where it still converges within the remnant of tropical storm ANA still located over southern Africa.

Tropical Disturbance no02-20212022 :
Position at 09 UTC: 14.7oS / 87.2oE
Forward motion: West-Southwest at 14 kt
Average 10-min winds: 25 kt
Estimated central pressure: 1001 hPa

For more information, refer to bulletin WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Depression over land ANA :

At 09 UTC the residual center of the system was located approximately at 15.9oS and 28.9oE near the border between Zimbabwe and Zambia. It is moving in a general westerly direction at 11 kt. This system continues to generate locally heavy rainfall over a wide area including the western edge of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and southern Zambia as well as parts of northern South Africa and northeastern Botswana. Over the next 24 hours, frequent additional rainfall totals of 30-80 mm in 24 hours are expected over these areas, with local amounts of up to 100 mm, particularly over southern Zambia.

Over the central part of the basin :

While convective activity remains particularly strong within the TM between 70oE and 80oE, the available observations do not highlight a closed circulation. If the environmental conditions are quite favorable with a strong monsoon supply and a rather weak shear, the expected passage in the next few days of the system no02 to the South should stop the convergence of low layers in this sector. A weak low-level circulation could possibly develop during the next 48 hours before merging with system no02. There is therefore no more potential for cyclogenesis associated with this area.

The potential for the development  of a tropical storm east of the basin becomes very important within the next 24 hours with the development of system no02.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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