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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 2 
Message-ID: <20220126132313.EC31B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 13:23:13 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 261222
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2022/01/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 86.6 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY SIX    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/27 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/27 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/28 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/29 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 250 SW: 205 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOME IMPORTANT EQUATORIAL WAVE ACTIVITY (IN PARTICULAR AN
EQUATORIAL-ROSSBY WAVE INDUCING A SURGE OF NORTHWESTERLY MONSOON
FLOW), A LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 90E HAS SHOWN GRADUAL SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION THESE LAST DAYS, THUS REACHING THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
STAGE THIS WEDNESDAY AT 06UTC.
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUD PATTERN HAVE
CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A SMALL CURVED BAND WRAPPING WEST AND NORTH
OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WHICH ISN'T FAR OUT FROM THE CDO, ALTHOUGH
SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS APPARENT. THE AMSR2 PASS OF 0806Z CONFIRMS
THIS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES
AN INTENSITY OF 2.5-, POINTING TO AN UPGRADE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS.

UNTIL TOMORROW, SYSTEM 02-20212022IS WILL KEEP MOVING RAPIDLY
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH
AND THE MONSOON GYRE THAT THE SYSTEM IS BYPASSING ON ITS SOUTHEAST
AND THEN SOUTHERN FLANK. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN A LITTLE FROM
FRIDAY IN CONNECTION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A PROBABLE INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA-TYPE OR
ABSORPTION) WITH A SECONDARY VORTEX INITIALLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
IT, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH ALSO BRINGS UNCERTAINTY ON
THE PRECISE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK. FROM SUNDAY, STRENGTHENING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY BEND
THE TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTH-WEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT
NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO (NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND),
BUT WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND THE DISTANCE OF THE
PASSAGE NEAR INHABITED LANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS KEEP SLIGHTLY IMPROVING IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM. THANKS TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE SYSTEM, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS DECREASING, ESTIMATED EASTERLY AROUND 15KT, KNOWING THAT THE
SYSTEM ITSELF IS MOVING AT ABOUT 15KT IN A SIMILAR DIRECTION. LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD BETWEEN THE NORTH-WEST MONSOON FLOW AND THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS, IN A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH COULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION UP TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STAGE
BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM'S SMALL SIZE HOWEVER INDUCES
AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY ON THIS INTENSITY FORECAST. AROUND FRIDAY
28, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME TEMPORARILY LESS FAVORABLE, WITH LESS
FAVORABLE EQUATORWARDL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE
SECONDARY SUB-VORTEX LOCATED MORE NORTH, AND ALSO A POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR FROM THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DURING THE WEEKEND, THE CIRCULATION COULD THEN
RECONSOLIDATE IN THE HEART OF THE MONSOON GYRE AND BENEFIT FROM MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE RSMC'S FORECAST THUS SUGGESTS
INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE PRECISED LATER, AS DISPERSION BETWEEN MODELS IS
STILL QUITE LARGE. IN ADDITION, THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SATURDAY
INCLUDED. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO (RODRIGUES ISLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE) AT A
RELATIVELY MATURE STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH A STILL UNCERTAIN
TRACK. A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
NEAR RODRIGUES (STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEA STATE, RAINFALL) FROM SUNDAY
OR MONDAY, BUT ITS EXTENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. CONCERNING MAURITIUS
AND REUNION ISLANDS, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL ABOUT POSSIBLE
IMPACTS.=

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