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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220126154432.F3EB41C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 15:44:32 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 261544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jan 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N83W to 08N103W. The monsoon
trough continues from 08N103W to low pressure near 09N111W 1010
mb to another low pressure near 09N120W 1011 mb to 06N126W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N126W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 77W and 82W, and from
06N to 16N between 105W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh NW to N winds are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of
California this morning with seas of 2-4 ft. The Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is experiencing strong N winds this morning with seas
around 6 ft. Gentle wind speeds are found elsewhere near the 
coast of Mexico. Seas are 6-7 ft west of Baja California in W to
NW swell, and generally 4-6 ft offshore the remainder of Mexico.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell west of Baja 
California will slowly subside through Fri. Strong north winds
will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning.
Thereafter, a strong gap wind event will begin by late Fri
afternoon, with winds increasing to gale force Fri evening, as a
strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into 
southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and lasting through the 
upcoming weekend. Winds could peak near 45 kt on Sat. In the Gulf
of California, fresh to strong northwest winds are expected Thu 
night through Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds are likely
occurring across the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N winds
are likely occurring in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward 
to about 05N. Seas are 4-5 ft in these areas. Light to gentle 
variable winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are occurring 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region tonight through Thu night, then again Sat night 
through Mon. Winds may pulse to near gale force Sun night.
Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the Gulf 
of Panama through Thu night, then return to the area Sat night
through Mon night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should 
remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest swell 
from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event will 
spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters on Sat 
and Sat night building the wave heights to a range of 9-13 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly gentle 
winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 24N133W to low
pressure near 19N135W 1010 mb to 16N140W. Another surface trough
extends from 20N126W to 16N129W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 16N to 23N between 123W and 134W. This activity is 
shifting east-northeastward. Northwest swell is producing 
significant wave heights of 6-8 ft across the entire area, west
of 110W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft east of 105W to the Galapagos
Islands.

For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay through Thu. 
Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the basin through 
Fri. Looking ahead, a surface trough is likely to amplify over 
the open high seas near 126W/127W during the weekend. It will be 
accompanied by fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with
building seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and 
between 123W-134W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun
night.

$$
Hagen


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