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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 2 
Message-ID: <20220126182253.B801D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 18:22:53 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 261808
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2022/01/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 85.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/27 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/27 18 UTC: 17.8 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/28 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/28 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/29 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS FLUCTUATED A
LOT. UNDER THE PROBABLE EFFECT OF THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COLLAPSED, LEAVING A RATHER
LIMITED CLOUD PATTERN CONCENTRATED IN THE WESTERN SECTOR NEAR THE
CENTER. THIS ONE SEEMS TO START AGAIN DURING THE LAST MOMENTS. THE
PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH OF 1612UTC ALLOWS TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 30KT
IN THE SOUTH SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM WHICH CORROBORATES THE ANALYSIS OF
DVORAK OF 2.5 IN CI ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDY CONFIGURATION IS LESS WELL
DEFINED THAN DURING THE 12 PREVIOUS HOURS. THE SYSTEM 02-20212022
REMAINS AT THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE 02-20212022 SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST
GUIDED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND THE MONSOON GYRE
TO THE NORTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT FROM FRIDAY IN
RELATION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A
PROBABLE INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTEX LOCATED FURTHER NORTH IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECISE ORIENTATION OF THE
TRACK IS QUITE HIGH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT MODELS. FROM SUNDAY, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
SLIGHTLY BEND THE TRACK TOWARDS WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSIT NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES (NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND). AT
THESE TIMES AND BECAUSE OF THE DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS,
THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE
NEAR INHABITED LAND.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOW LAYERS
IS GOOD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST MONSOON FLOW AND THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TRADE WINDS, IN A SUFFICIENTLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT. BUT THE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH DECREASING THANKS TO THE SHIFT OF THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS MORE MERIDIONAL LATITUDES, IS STILL LIMITING FOR A MORE FRANK
INTENSIFICATION. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY
PROGRESSIVELY AND REACH THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM IN
THE MORNING OR DAY OF THURSDAY. WITH THE DECREASE OF THE EQUATORIAL
COAST CONVERGENCE IN CONNECTION WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE
VORTICITY CORE LOCATED MORE IN THE NORTH, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM COULD BE SLOWED DOWN AT THE APPROACH OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE
LONGER TERM, DURING ITS MOVEMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED IN A
LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BENEFITING FROM MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE RSMC FORECAST THUS PROPOSES AN
INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED LATER, AS THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS IS QUITE LARGE. IN ADDITION, THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SATURDAY
INCLUDED. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO (RODRIGUES ISLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE) BEING
INTENSIFIED. A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED NEAR RODRIGUES FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT ITS EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. CONCERNING MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS, IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL ABOUT POSSIBLE IMPACTS.=

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