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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (invest 96s) Reissued// 
Message-ID: <20220126211346.2E6971C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 21:13:46 +0000
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WTXS21 PGTW 262130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252121Z JAN 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 252130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 90.7E TO 16.3S 84.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 84.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY
866NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A CONSOLIDATED CORE OF CONVECTION
HAS DISTINGUISHED ITSELF FROM THE MONSOONAL CONVERGENCE TO THE
NORTH; FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE PLUMES ROTATING ABOUT THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272130Z.
//
NNNN


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