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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220126214421.3CFFD1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2022 21:44:21 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
ABIO10 PGTW 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/262200Z-271800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262121ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY
866NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A CONSOLIDATED CORE OF CONVECTION
HAS DISTINGUISHED ITSELF FROM THE MONSOONAL CONVERGENCE TO THE
NORTH; FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE PLUMES ROTATING ABOUT THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT
CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT.
NNNN


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