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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 2 
Message-ID: <20220127002644.1A9B91C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 00:26:43 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 270023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2

2.A POSITION 2022/01/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 84.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/27 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/28 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/29 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS RESUMED AS INDICATED
IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. A CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN IS RESUMING AND
ALLOWING A DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 2.5 AS 12 HOURS AGO. THE LENGTHENING OF
THE CIRCULATION TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST IN CONNECTION WITH THE SECOND
VORTEX REMAINS TROUBLESOME TO ALLOW A CONSOLIDATION OF THE VORTICITY.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST SECTOR
WITHOUT BEING LINKED TO THE 02 SYSTEM. MICROWAVE DATA FROM 2227UTC
STILL PLEADS FOR WINDS AROUND 30KT. THE 02-20212022 SYSTEM REMAINS AT
THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. SYSTEM 02-20212022 MOVES TO THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST GUIDED BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
THE MONSOON GYRE TO THE NORTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN A BIT
FROM FRIDAY IN RELATION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A PROBABLE INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTEX
LOCATED FURTHER NORTH IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
PRECISE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK IS QUITE HIGH BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
MODELS. FROM SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH
OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD SLIGHTLY BEND THE TRACK TOWARDS WEST-NORTHWEST
WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES (NEAR
RODRIGUES ISLAND). AT THESE DATES AND BECAUSE OF THE DISPERSION OF
THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR INHABITED LAND: A SLIGHT SLOWDOWN HAS
BEEN TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TIMIDLY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOW LAYERS IS GOOD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST MONSOON FLOW AND THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS, IN A SUFFICIENTLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT. BUT
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH DECREASING THANKS TO THE SHIFT OF
THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MORE MERIDIONAL LATITUDES, IS STILL LIMITING FOR A
MORE FRANK INTENSIFICATION. IN THESE CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY AND REACH THE THRESHOLD OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM IN THE MORNING OR DAY OF THURSDAY. WITH THE DECREASE OF THE
EQUATORIAL COAST CONVERGENCE IN CONNECTION WITH THE INTERACTION WITH
THE VORTICITY CORE LOCATED MORE IN THE NORTH, THE INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM COULD BE SLOWED DOWN AT THE APPROACH OF THE WEEKEND. IN
THE LONGER TERM, DURING ITS MOVEMENT, THE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED IN A
LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BENEFITING FROM MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AGAIN. THE RSMC FORECAST THUS PROPOSES AN
INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED LATER, AS THE DISPERSION
BETWEEN MODELS IS QUITE LARGE. IN ADDITION, THE STAGE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SATURDAY
INCLUDED. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO (RODRIGUES ISLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE) BEING
INTENSIFIED. A SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED NEAR RODRIGUES FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT ITS EXTENT IS
STILL UNCERTAIN. CONCERNING MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLANDS, IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL ABOUT POSSIBLE IMPACTS.=

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