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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220127040947.218CC1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 04:09:47 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 270405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build=20
southward across the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico Fri night
into Sat. The resultant tight pressure gradient is expected to=20
result in a strong gale-force gap wind event beginning Fri night.
Peak winds with this event are forecast to reach 45 kt on Sat=20
along with building seas reach the range of 9-13 ft on Sat. Model
guidance indicates that strong to near gale-force northeast winds=20
will reach downstream from the Gulf to near 10N and west to=20
99W during Sat afternoon along with seas of 8-12 ft. Mariners
are urged to be on the lookout for this upcoming event as it will
likely lead to hazardous marine conditions in the impacted=20
waters. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by=20
the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!qRiOyebXp20QbJ2yNaS9029Go5dJson-DH9dc6uUt-oaQsWlrSbyE2Y0qjpkTWcyf=
-15dn6k$  for further=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N83W to 06N91W to 05N98W and=20
to 07N116W, where it pauses. It resumes at 09N116W to low
pressure near 07N123W 1010 mb, where latest scatterometer data=20
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N128W to 05N136W=20
and to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within=20
120 nm south of the trough between 116W-119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

The latest ASCAT data passes show fresh N winds in the northern=20
Gulf of California and moderate NW winds in the central Gulf of=20
California. Seas of 3-4 ft are likely occurring in the northern=20
Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force north winds are=20
likely occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6-7=20
ft. Moderate north winds are likely occurring off Cabo=20
Corrientes. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft=20
are occurring from west of Baja California to offshore=20
Manzanillo, in west to northwest swell. Seas are 5-6 ft=20
elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate northwest swell west of Baja=20
California will slowly subside through Fri. Strong north winds=20
will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri=20
morning. Thereafter, a strong gap wind event will begin by late=20
Fri afternoon, with winds increasing to gale force Fri evening,=20
as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico=20
into southern Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and last through the=20
upcoming weekend. Winds could peak near 45 kt on Sat. Winds are=20
expected to diminish below gale force Sun afternoon, but remain=20
strong through Sun night. In the Gulf of California, fresh to=20
strong northwest winds are expected Thu night through Fri night.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The earlier moderate to fresh northeast to east gap winds across
the Papagayo region have increases to fresh to strong speeds.=20
Mainly fresh north winds are in the Gulf of Panama, extending=20
southward to about 06N. Seas are 4-5 ft in these areas. Light to=20
gentle variable winds and wave heights of 3-4 ft are occurring=20
elsewhere. Isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery south=20
of Panama and west of Colombia.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo region tonight through Thu night, then again Sat night=20
through Mon. Winds may pulse to near gale-force late Sun night.=20
Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the Gulf=20
of Panama through Thu night, then return to the area Sat night=20
through Mon night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should=20
remain tranquil for the next several days. Large northwest to=20
north swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale=20
event will spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore=20
waters on Sat and Sat night building the wave heights to a range=20
of 9-13 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly gentle=20
winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 20N129W to low
pressure near 20N133W 1011 mb and to 16N140W. Another surface=20
trough extends from 20N128W to 13N130W. To the northwest of=20
these features, yet another surface trough extends from 29N133W=20
to weak low pressure near 28N137W, and from the low southwest=20
to near 25N140W. These features are under a broad upper-level=20
trough that is helping to sustain them. Latest satellite imagery
shows broken patches of moderate rain and scattered showers from
20N to 24N between 123W-139W. Similar precipitation activity is=20
seen from 16N to 20N between 122W-126W. Moderate to locally=20
fresh E winds are occurring from about 19N to 23N and between=20
124W-135W, with moderate to locally fresh NE winds from 17N-21N=20
between 135W-140W. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere.=20
Northwest swell is producing significant wave heights of 6-8 ft=20
across the entire area, west of 105W. Wave heights are 5-6 ft=20
east of 105W to vicinity of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay today.
Gentle to moderate winds will continue across the basin through=20
Fri. A surface trough is likely to amplify over the open high=20
seas near 127W/128W during the weekend. It will be accompanied by
fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with building seas
within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between 123W-=20
133W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun night. It is=20
possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this=20
occurs, then near-gale force winds could occur within that area=20
on Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the=20
northern waters early next week, with fresh to strong winds=20
behind it. Latest Wave model guidance suggests that this front
will usher in a rather extensive set of NW swell into the=20
northwest part of the area early next week.=20

$$
Aguirre


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