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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-SW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And 
Message-ID: <20220127060108.52F081C0087@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 06:01:08 +0000
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TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE WESTERN PACIFIC
ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.4N 121.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 115.4E, APPROXIMATELY 198
NM WEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM. A 270441Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH A RAGGED, ILL-DEFINED
LLCC. HOWEVER, A 270221Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMCIRCLE AND 5-10 KNOT
WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY POLEWARD,
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM ADJACENT TO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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