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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220127073511.BBE231C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 07:35:11 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 270720
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 81.9 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/27 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

24H: 2022/01/28 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 65

36H: 2022/01/28 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 65

48H: 2022/01/29 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

60H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

72H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAINTAINED OVER
THE CENTER OF SYSTEM 02 WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS. ON THE LATEST IMAGES,
CLOUD PATTERN SEEMED TO BE IMPROVONG WITH A CURVED BAND WRAPPING IN
THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. 0321Z AND 0408Z ASCAT SWATHS HELPED IN
UPDATING THE WIND EXTENSIONS. THEY ALSO SHOWED THAT IT WAS STILL QUIT
ASSYMETRIC WITH WEAK WINDS IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT ET GALE
FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE
SYSTEM WAS NAMED BATSIRAI BY MMS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. BATSIRAI MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN A BIT FROM FRIDAY IN RELATION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD BEND THE TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT EAST OF THE
MASCAREIGNES (NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND). AT THIS RANGE, AND GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE TO THE INHABITED ISLANDS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE AT SHORT RANGE, WITH WARM
WATERS, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR. THE SMALL SIZE OF
BATSIRAI COULD ALSO FAVOR STRONG INTENSITY CHANGES. THUS, IT MIGHT
REACH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24H. THIS
WEEK-END,, A TEMPORARY INCREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HELPED BY
THE SMALL SIZE, MAY LEAD TO A WEAKENING. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AND WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE INT HE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT. BATSIRAI MAY BECOME THEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SATURDAY
INCLUDED. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO ESPECIALLY RODRIGUES ISLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE)
BEING INTENSIFIED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ASSESS RELIABLY THE
POSSIBLE IMAPACTS. NEVERTHELESS, MASCARENE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BATSIRAI.=

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