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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220127095404.40C241C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 09:54:04 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 270953
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure will build=20
southward across the Gulf of Mexico and across eastern Mexico Fri
night into Sat. The resultant tight pressure gradient is=20
expected to result in a strong gale-force gap wind event=20
beginning Fri night. Peak winds with this event are forecast to=20
reach 45 kt on Sat along with building seas that are forecast to=20
reach a range of 11-18 ft Sat and Sat night. Model guidance=20
indicates that strong to near gale-force northeast winds will=20
reach downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 10N and west=20
to 100W during Sat afternoon along with seas of 8-12 ft.=20
Mariners are urged to be on the lookout for this upcoming event=20
as it will likely lead to hazardous marine conditions in the=20
impacted waters. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!qsrlIyTaqLJYN2RaOkKmWPC9h7SYlM6cfokxRvtRe26_EK-7fl44gykmiwk0dSrAh=
27P3W--$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N80W to 08N89W to 05N98W to
low pressure near 08N113W 1012 mb and to another low pressure
near 07N122W 1012 mb, where overnight scatterometer data=20
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
04N130W and to beyond 07.5N140W. No significant convection is=20
presently noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

The 0410Z ASCAT pass revealed strong to near gale-force winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are forecast to change=20
little through late tonight as high pressure surges southward=20
over eastern Mexico, but then diminish to mainly fresh speeds=20
Fri afternoon. By Fri evening, minimal gale-force winds are=20
expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

The latest ASCAT data passes show moderate to fresh northwest=20
winds in the central Gulf of California and mainly gentle
northwest winds elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Seas of 3-4=20
ft are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California.=20
Strong to near gale force north winds are likely occurring in=20
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6-7 ft. Moderate=20
northwest to north winds are likely occurring off Cabo=20
Corrientes. Gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6-7 ft=20
are occurring from west of Baja California to offshore=20
Manzanillo due to a west to northwest swell. Seas are 5-6 ft=20
elsewhere.

For the forecast, northwest swell west of Baja California will=20
subside slightly through Fri. Strong north winds will continue=20
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning. Thereafter,
a strong gap wind event will begin by late Fri afternoon, with=20
winds increasing to gale-force Fri evening, as a strong cold=20
front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico into southern=20
Mexico. Marine conditions will deteriorate in the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec beginning Fri night and last through the upcoming=20
weekend. Winds could peak near 45 kt on Sat. Winds are expected=20
to diminish below gale force Sun afternoon, but remain strong=20
through Sun night. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong=20
northwest winds are expected Thu night through Fri night.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are across the=20
Papagayo region. Mainly fresh north winds are in the Gulf of=20
Panama, extending southward to about 06N. Seas are 4-5 ft in=20
these areas. Light to gentle variable winds and wave heights of=20
3-4 ft are occurring elsewhere. Isolated showers are noted on=20
satellite imagery south of Panama and west of Colombia.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds will pulse in the
Papagayo through tonight, then again Sat night through Mon night.
Moderate to fresh north winds will continue in the Gulf of=20
Panama into early next week. Over the remainder of the area,=20
winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large=20
northwest to north swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap-wind gale event will spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador=20
offshore waters on Sat and Sat night building the wave heights to
a range of 9-14 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A ridge extends across the northern waters, with mainly gentle=20
winds north of 25N. A surface trough extends from 22N129W to=20
18N127W and to 14N128.5W. Another surface trough extends from=20
20N131W to low pressure near 19N133W 1012 mb and to 15N139W.
To the northwest of these features, yet another surface trough=20
extends from 29N134W to weak low pressure near 29N137W 1012 mb,=20
and from the low southwestward to near 24N140W. These features=20
are under a broad upper-level trough that is helping to sustain=20
them. Latest satellite imagery shows broken patches of moderate=20
rain and scattered showers from 19N to 22N between 125W-132W.=20
Similar activity is seen from 15N to 20N between 121W-125W.=20
Moderate to locally fresh east winds are occurring from about=20
19N to 23N and between 124W-135W, with moderate to locally fresh=20
northeast winds from 17N-22N between 135W-140W. Mainly gentle=20
winds prevail elsewhere. Northwest swell is producing significant
wave heights of 6-8 ft across the area west of about 105W. Wave=20
heights are 5-6 ft east of 105W to the vicinity of the Galapagos=20
Islands.

For the forecast, the northwest swell will decay over the=20
western half of the area today. Gentle to moderate winds will=20
continue across the basin through Fri. A surface trough is likely
to amplify over the open high seas near 127W/128W during the=20
weekend. It will be accompanied by fresh to strong northeast to=20
east winds along with building seas within an area roughly=20
bounded from 10N-22N and between 123W-133W. These conditions are
expected Sat through Sun night. It is possible that a low could=20
briefly form along the trough. If this transpires, then near-=20
gale force winds could occur within that area on Sun. Looking=20
ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the northern waters=20
early next week, with fresh to strong winds behind it. Latest=20
Wave model guidance indicates that this front will usher in a=20
set of northwest swell into the northern part of the area early=20
next week. The swell is forecast to merge with swell generated=20
by the surface trough over the waters west of 130W.

$$
Aguirre


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