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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220127112606.ED8071C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 11:26:06 +0000
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972 
AWIO20 FMEE 271123

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/27 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO30 005/02 issued at 06UTC on Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI no02-20212022.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.


PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow remained present over the entire width of the basin and fed an active Monsoon Trough (MT) located from  8S/51E to the centre of BATSIRAI and to 18S/80E to 8S/85E. The convective activity is strong to very strong north of the  MT and within MT with the CT BATSIRAI.

The filtered products of the wind in the low levels show that a crossing of the MJO and equatorial Rossby waves is currently in progress over the Indian Ocean.

Tropical Cyclone no02-20212022 :
Position at 10 UTC: 17.6S 80.5E
Forward motion: SW20kt
Average 10-min winds: 70kt
Estimated central pressure: 980hPa

For more information, refer to bulletin WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

Depression over land ANA :

At 09 UTC the residual center of the system was located approximately at 17.1oS and 27.2oE near the border between Zimbabwe, Zambia and Botswana. It is moving in a general westerly direction at 5 kt. This system continues to generate locally heavy rainfall over a wide area including the western edge of Mozambique, Zimbabwe and southern Zambia as well as parts of northern South Africa and northeastern Botswana.

Over the next 24 hours, frequent additional rainfall totals of 30-80 mm in 24 hours are expected over these areas, with local amounts of up to 100 mm, particularly over western Zambia on friday then south-eastern Angola on saturday

There is no risk for the development  of an other moderate tropical storm over the basin for the next five days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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