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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220127132856.7474D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 13:28:56 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 271254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/2/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 79.7 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 22 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 968 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/28 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/01/28 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/01/29 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75

48H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 75

60H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

72H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 67.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 75

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS UNDERGONE A DRAMATIC CHANGE
WITH THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AND A COLD RING. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ANALYSES REACHED 5.5 FOR MORE THAN 2 HOURS. THIS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WAS MOST PROBABLY FAVORED BY THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM AND ITS VERY FAST MOTION (MORE THAN 20KT). THE 0605Z GMI
SWATH OF 0605Z AND ESPECIALLY THE 1102Z SSMIS SHOW AN INNER CORE OF
ONLY 75 TO 90 KM IN DIAMETER. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000.5 HPA OBSERVED BY THE BUOY
5601653 AT ABOUT 60KM NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 09UTC. THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM COULD HAVE LIMITED THE ANALYZED DVORAK INTENSITY.
CONSEQUENTLY, BATSIRAI IS CONSIDERED AS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AT 12Z.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. BATSIRAI MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
DRIVEN BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD
SLOW DOWN A BIT FROM FRIDAY IN RELATION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD BEND THE TRACK TOWARDS
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT EAST OF THE
MASCAREIGNES (NEAR RODRIGUES ISLAND). AT THIS RANGE, AND GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE TO THE INHABITED ISLANDS.

THE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SEEMS TO START CLOSING. THE NORTH
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS INCREASING IN THE CIMSS DATA
AND SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES.DUE TO ITS
SMALL SIZE, BATSIRAI COULD EXPERIENCE A RAPID WEAKENING IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.  THE PRESENT SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST COULD
UNDERESTIMATE THE WEAKENING.
AFTERWARDS, CONDITIONS COULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME FAVORABLE AGAIN BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH A GOOD
DIVERGENCE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM COULD THEN REGAIN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS
STILL VERY UNCERTAIN AND COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.


POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS:
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SATURDAY
INCLUDED. FROM SUNDAY OR MONDAY, IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO ESPECIALLY RODRIGUES ISLAND IN THE FIRST PLACE)
BEING INTENSIFIED. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ASSESS RELIABLY THE
POSSIBLE IMAPACTS. NEVERTHELESS, MASCARENE INHABITANTS ARE INVITED TO
MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF BATSIRAI.=

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