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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220127155740.406711C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 15:57:40 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 271555
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front should=20
move across the W Gulf of Mexico into S Mexico Fri producing a=20
vigorous Tehuantepecer. This new gap wind event will begin by=20
late Fri afternoon, with winds increasing to gale force Fri=20
evening, and peaking as a strong gale on Sat. Seas are likely to=20
peak near 18 ft with a large area of 12 ft reaching to 10N100W.=20
Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun afternoon,=20
but remain strong through Sun night. Please read the latest NWS=20
Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center=20
at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFF=
PZ7.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vgtorjE9JXlyyqTS0RrgYR_NY1n8ukhuT1DnVpmMVgtGcU-jgJ0tjn=
nUzLAJ685HDlN3s3uM$  for more
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N89W to low pressure near=20
06N123W, where it transitions to ITCZ and continues to 04N132W.=20
No significant convection is presently noted.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Away from strong N gap winds currently over the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec, winds are moderate or weaker across the Mexican=20
Offshore Waters this morning as weak high pressure is in place=20
west of Baja California. Seas are 6-8 ft over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec in mixed N wind waves and NW swell, 5-7 ft in NW
swell over the Offshore zones west of Baja and south of SW=20
Mexico, and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Building high pressure over the Great Basin=20
should produce fresh to strong NW winds along the entire Gulf of=20
California tonight through late Fri night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are across the Papagayo region.=20
Mainly fresh N winds are over the Gulf of Panama, extending=20
southward to about 06N. Seas are 5-6 ft in these areas. Light to
gentle variable winds and wave heights of 3-5 ft are occurring=20
elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the=20
Papagayo region through tonight, then again Sat night through Mon
night. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue in the Gulf of=20
Panama into early next week. Over the remainder of the area,=20
winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW=20
swell from an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will=20
spread to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat=20
through Sun morning.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a weak 1022 mb high near 36N128W
and the monsoon trough/ITCZ is producing on moderate or weather
winds across the remainder of the area. Isolated moderate
convection is noted between 10N-18N between 110W-115W. Seas are
5-7 ft in NW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue across=20
the basin through Fri. A surface trough is likely to amplify over
the open high seas near 127W during the weekend. It will be=20
accompanied by fresh to strong NE to E winds along with building
seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between=20
123W-133W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun night.=20
It is possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If
this transpires, then near-gale to gale force winds could occur=20
within that area on Sun. Seas are anticipated to peak near 12 ft.

Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to enter the N waters on
Mon, with fresh to strong NE to E winds behind it. This front=20
will usher in a set of large NW swell into the N part of the=20
area early next week. The swell is forecast to merge with swell=20
generated by the surface trough over the waters west of 130W.

$$
Landsea


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