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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220127190825.23ECA1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 27 Jan 2022 19:08:25 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 271902
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 77.9 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 7 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/28 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65

24H: 2022/01/28 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2022/01/29 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75

48H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 68.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0

AFTER THE SPECTACULAR AND FAST INTENSIFICATION TREND OF THIS
AFTERNOON, IT IS AN EQUALLY FAST WEAKENING TREND WHICH IS IN PLACE
SINCE 13Z: THE EYE HAS QUICKLY DISAPPEARED AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE
STRONGLY WARMED UP. AN INCREASE OF THE NORTHERLY MID6SHEAR SEEMS TO
BE AT THE ORIGIN OF THIS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL CORE IS SO COMPACT
THAT ITS DETAILS ARE HARDLY VISIBLE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. HOWEVER,
THE EVENING IMAGERY (SSMIS AND AMSUB) SUGGEST SOME RESISTANCE OF THE
CENTRAL CORE. EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN LESS THAN 6 HOURS SINCE THE
CLOUD PATTERN STARTED TO DETERIORATE, THE INTENSITY IS STARTING TO BE
ESTIMATED TO BE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK PHILOSOPHY BUT NOTE THAT THE LAST
GUIDANCE HAS A SLOWER TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL TO THE EAST OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS WHICH HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST. BATSIRAI
IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT FOR THE MOMENT RATHER FAST SHOULD SLOW DOWN A
LITTLE FROM FRIDAY WITHIN A RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (SITUATION OF BAROMETRIC COL SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM). FROM SUNDAY,
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
BEND THE TRACK TOWARDS WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN WEST WHILE THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES (NEAR RODRIGUES). AT
THESE TIMES AND BECAUSE OF THE DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS,
A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE CHRONOLOGY AND THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE
NEAR THE INHABITED LANDS IS PRESENT.

THE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. THE NORTHERLY
VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IS INCREASING IN THE CIMSS
DATA. GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE, BATSIRAI IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESENT SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST MAY EVEN
UNDERESTIMATE THE WEAKENING.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME FAVORABLE AGAIN BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
AND MAKE THE RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION QUITE SLOW.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SATURDAY
INCLUDED. FROM MONDAY (DELAYED TIMING), IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF
THE MASCAREIGNES IN PARTICULAR RODRIGUES. IT IS HOWEVER STILL TOO
EARLY TO ESTIMATE RELIABLY THE IMPACTS TO EXPECT FROM THIS SYSTEM.
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES (RODRIGUES, MAURICE AND REUNION)
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW ITS EVOLUTION.=

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