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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220128012246.07BF01C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 01:22:45 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 280050
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/28 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1 S / 75.8 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/4.0/W 2.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/28 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/29 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

120H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0 CI=4.0

GMI AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY ACQUIRED AROUND 1930Z SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND THAT THE COMPACT CENTRAL CORE PRESENT UNTIL YESTERDAY
EVENING IMPLODED DURING THE NIGHT. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND IS CLOSE TO THE LAST SATCON ESTIMATES
(46 KT 1-MIN AT 2032Z).

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK PHILOSOPHY AND TIMING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE WEAKENING, BATSIRAI IS MOVING MORE
TOWARDS THE WEST GUIDED BY THE LOW LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN A BIT FROM TODAY IN
RELATION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM). FROM SUNDAY, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD
BEND THE TRAJECTORY TOWARDS WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN WEST WHILE THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES (NEAR
RODRIGUES). IN THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE POSITIONING OF A MID
LEVELS RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL TEMPORARILY
GIVE CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS. THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK
FORECAST INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT MOMENT ON. AT THESE TIMES
AND BECAUSE OF THE DISPERSION OF THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR INHABITED
LANDS REMAINS PRESENT.

THE VERTICAL NORTHWARD SHEAR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE WITH INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. HOWEVER, A RAPID EVOLUTION,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAINTENANCE OF A SMALL CIRCULATION, REMAINS
POSSIBLE AND WILL BE MONITORED.

FROM SUNDAY-MONDAY, A CHANGE OF STRUCTURE WITH THE CONSTITUTION OF A
LARGER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND A POSITION CLOSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE
COULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
SENSITIVE AND MAKE THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND RATHER SLOW.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY
INCLUDED. FROM MONDAY (DELAYED TIMING), IT COULD APPROACH THE EAST OF
THE MASCAREIGNES IN PARTICULAR RODRIGUES. IF IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
ESTIMATE RELIABLY THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM ON THIS ISLAND, THE
PROBABILITIES OF WEATHER AND DANGEROUS SEA INCREASE FROM MONDAY. THE
INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION)
ARE THEREFORE INVITED TO FOLLOW ITS EVOLUTION.=

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