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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220128022430.544451C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 02:24:30 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 280224
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move=20
across the Gulf of Mexico Fri ushering in a strong gale- force=20
gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to
gale- force Fri evening, and peaking as a strong gale on Sat.=20
Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun afternoon,=20
but remain strong through Sun night. Seas will peak near 18 ft=20
with a large area of 12 ft reaching to as far as 10N100W. Please=20
read the latest NWS Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!ps3owB2N9QYPQZ_2K7kcGMHWftU5zWtAF9KqL7cqI_S4Ul33QNNQM98H-gwlcJZU4=
-X5_EGV$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N104W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N140W to 09N118W to 04N132W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 18N between 135W and 140W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Aside from strong N gap winds currently over the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec, moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of
California. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
open waters off Mexico. Seas are 6-7 ft over the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec, 5-6 ft over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-4 ft=20
over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. Building high=20
pressure over the Great Basin will help produce fresh to strong=20
NW winds over the entire Gulf of California through Sat morning.=20
Building high pressure west of California early next week is=20
expected to produce increasing NW winds and building seas over=20
the waters west of Baja California Norte and the N Gulf of=20
California.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo=20
region with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Light to moderate winds=20
are occurring elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the=20
Papagayo region tonight, then again Sat night through Mon night.=20
Moderate to fresh N winds will continue in the Gulf of Panama=20
until Mon night. Over the remainder of the area, winds should=20
remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW swell from an
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread to the=20
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat morning through Sun
morning.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 38N119W. The pressure=20
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds=20
north of the ITCZ. Light to gentle winds prevail south of the=20
ITCZ. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range.=20

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue across=20
the basin through Fri. A surface trough is forecast to amplify=20
over the open high seas near 127W during the weekend. It will be=20
accompanied by fresh to strong NE to E winds along with building=20
seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between=20
125W-135W. These conditions are expected Sat through Sun night.=20
It is possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If
this transpires, then near-gale to gale force winds could occur=20
within that area on Sun. Seas are anticipated to peak near 12 ft.

Looking ahead, on Mon and Tue strong high pressure building west
of California is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds=20
and building seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of=20
both the N to NE wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
AL


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