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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220128072750.5B0C71C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 07:27:50 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 280627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3 S / 74.8 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/28 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2022/01/29 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

48H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

60H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5

SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 2337Z AS WELL AS CLASSICAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A LLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF THE CDO AND SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST AND
ENTERING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. THESE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM
THAT THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT WEAKENING SINCE LAST NIGHT. THE 40 KT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ANALYSIS AND THE
LATEST ASCAT DATA INDICATING WINDS REACHING 35 TO 40 KT IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.

BATSIRAI IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH. ITS MOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOW DOWN A BIT TODAY IN RELATION WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKENING OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD BEND THE TRACK
WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN WESTWARD WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT NEAR THE
EAST OF THE MASCAREIGNES (POTENTIALLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF RODRIGUES).
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE BUILDING OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE CONTRARY STEERING FLOWS, THUS
SIGNIFICANTLY ENHANCING TRACK UNCERTAINTY FROM THEN ON. BECAUSE OF
THE DISPERSION AMONG ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY
ON WHEN AND HOW FAR FROM INHABITED LANDS THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK.

VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSIONS COMBINED WITH A LACK
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SOME
RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM'S SMALL
CIRCULATION, REMAIN POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS, A CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM'S STRUCTURE WITH THE
FORMATION OF A LARGER LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEARER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE COULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION, BUT THIS COULD BE MORE OR LESS
OFFSET BY SOME REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE STAGE
OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM SEEMS VERY LIKELY, AND WE CANNOT EXCLUDE
THAT IT REACHES THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY
INCLUDED. ON MONDAY (SLIGHTLY DELAYED TIMING), IT COULD TRACK NEAR
THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN. MAURITIUS
COULD BE IMPACTED FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AGAIN WITH A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE BUT ALSO ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED
WEATHER AND DANGEROUS SEA INCREASING BY MONDAY OR MID-WEEK,
INHABITANTS OF THE MASCAREIGNES (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION)
ARE INVITED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE FORECASTS UPDATES.=

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