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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220128114222.BFFE91C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 11:42:22 +0000
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362 
AWIO20 FMEE 281140

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/28 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 009/02 issued at 06UTC on Moderate Tropical Storm BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow remains present over a large part of the basin width and feeds the active monsoon trough (MT) located from 9S/55E to 17S/80E, in which Moderate Tropical Storm BATSIRAI is located. The convective activity is strong on the northern side of the MT in the convergence of the monsoon flow and in its southeastern part where the pressure gradient with the anticyclone is the strongest.

Wave analyses show that several waves are particularly active over the basin, including MJO and Equatorial Rossby

Moderate Tropical Storm BATSIRAI :
Position at 09UTC : 18.1S / 74.1E
Movement : West 11kt
Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 40kt
Minimum central pressure : 996hPa

For more information, refer to the WTIO20 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 06 UTC and following.

Over the eastern part of the basin :

Early next week, a closed circulation could develop in the eastern part of the MT, with the arrival of the new anticyclonic cell and the persistence of a strong monsoon flow. All numerical models anticipate such a scenario with some variations. The IFS model and its ensemble as well as UKMO forecast the beginning of a significant deepening in a favorable environment. The GFS model and its ensemble remain more restrained at the moment, probably due to a less convergent trade wind.

Residual low ANA:

No center is detectable today within the broad residual low pressure area near the Caprivi Strip around 17S/24E. The circulation is still generating heavy rainfall over the border area between Zambia and Angola. Over the next few days, as the low pressure system fills by the end of the weekend, these heavy rains should shift over Namibia.

There is a very low risk that another moderate tropical storm may develop over the eastern part of the basin from Wednesday.

 
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


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