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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220128133637.511C21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 13:36:37 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 281227
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2 S / 73.5 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/29 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 65

24H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 75 NW: 65

36H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 315 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=3.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY
DETERIORATED WITH A TEMPORARILY EXPOSED LLC ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE CDO, DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VWS ADVECTING SOME DRY AIR
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A T NUMBER OF
2.5 WITH A CI DECREASING TO 3.0. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THUS ESTIMATED AT
35 KT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

BATSIRAI SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL SATURDAY
WHILE SLOWING DOWN, ATTRACTED BY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. FROM SUNDAY, STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD THEN WESTWARD
WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE EAST OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO, POSSIBLY TRACKING A LITTLE NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON MONDAY.
MOREOVER, THE BUILD-UP OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST
OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE
COMPETING STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS MOMENT ON. A STRONG DISPERSION IS STILL
PRESENT IN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, HENCE A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS.

IN THE SHORT TERM, A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE IN
CONNECTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WIND SHEAR, AS SUGGESTED BY THE
LAST SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 12Z AS WELL AS THE SSMIS PASS AT 1211Z,
SHOWING A A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTH OF THE CDO TRYING
TO MOVE UPSHEAR AND A LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING BACK UNDER THE CDO.
NEVERTHELESS, A REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT AND NEARBY DRY AIR
COULD SOMEWHAT CONTAIN INTENSITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH
BATSIRAI'S TIGHT CIRCULATION, RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE VERY
LIKELY AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FROM MONDAY, A LARGER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND A TRACK GETTING
CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE COULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THANKS
TO A BETTER SURFACE CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG
OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE OR LESS
INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MODERATE SHEAR ZONE, BRINGING
UNCERTAINTY ON ITS POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM AND THEN A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK CLOSE TO THE INHABITED LANDS.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE
WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MAURITIUS COULD BE IMPACTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ON, WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE BUT ALSO ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND ON THE TIMING OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONSET. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND
DANGEROUS SEA INCREASING AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENES (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION) ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE RSMC'S FORECAST UPDATES.=

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