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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220128160253.B56471C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 28 Jan 2022 16:02:53 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 281601
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move=20
across the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front. The tightening pressure gradient between this
area of building high pressure and the equatorial trough in the=20
eastern north Pacific will usher in a strong gale-force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to gale-=20
force this evening, and peak as a strong gale late tonight and=20
and Sat. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun=20
afternoon, but remain strong through Sun night. Seas will peak=20
near 18 ft with a large area of 12 ft reaching to as far as=20
10N100W. Please read the latest NWS Offshore Zones Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!qjvZ_lRy-YVHBjJQV1IIvPMDIZ1XyzBEMen1Sf0L-046S7WAaCl7JB2o0NlZPWzwG=
JaJvdBv$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N86W to 05N100W to 05N106W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 05N106W to 08N120W to 07N140W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 120W and=20
133W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Strong to near-gale N gap winds prevail over the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are=20
along the Gulf of California with 3-5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
NE winds prevail over the remainder Mexico offshore waters with
wave heights in the 4-6 ft range.=20

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Building high pressure
over the Great Basin will help produce fresh to strong NW winds=20
over the entire Gulf of California through Sat morning. Building=20
high pressure west of California early next week is expected to=20
produce increasing NW winds and building seas over the waters=20
west of Baja California Norte and the N Gulf of California.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds are occurring across the Papagayo=20
region with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Light to moderate winds=20
are occurring elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the=20
Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. Moderate N winds in
the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh speeds at night Sat through
Mon. Over the remainder of the area, winds will remain tranquil=20
for the next several days. Large NW swell from an upcoming Gulf=20
of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread to the Guatemala and El
Salvador offshore waters Sat morning through Sun morning.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A weak high pressure ridge prevails over the waters north of=20
19N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure=20
and lower pressure associated with a pair of surface troughs W of
120W is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds from 14N to 21N W
of 132W, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 12N to
18N between 113W and 125W with seas to 7 ft. Otherwise, light to
gentle winds prevail south of the ITCZ with seas in the 5-7 ft=20
range.

For the forecast, a surface trough is forecast to amplify over=20
the open high seas near 127W during the weekend. The deepening=20
trough will be accompanied by fresh to strong NE to E winds along
with building seas within an area roughly bounded from 10N-22N=20
and between 125W-135W. These conditions are expected Sat through=20
Sun night. It is possible that a low could briefly form along the
trough. If this transpires, then near-gale to gale force winds=20
could occur within that area on Sun. Seas are anticipated to peak
near 12 ft.

Looking ahead, on Mon and Tue strong high pressure building west
of California is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds=20
and building seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of=20
both the N to NE wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
Ramos


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