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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220129011253.8BC651C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 01:12:53 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 290053
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/2/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 71.5 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 65 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/29 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 110 NW: 65

36H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 17.3 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 220 SW: 295 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45

60H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 345 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE IMPROVEMENT OF THE BATSIRAI CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BEEN CONFIRMED WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER AGAIN UNDER THE
CONVECTION. THE SATELITTE ANIMATION SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, ALSO VISIBLE ON THE LAST CIMMS DATA.
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT, CONFIRMED BY THE LAST ASCAT DATA OF 17H30Z.

BATSIRAI SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY WHILE
SLOWING DOWN, ATTRACTED BY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. FROM SUNDAY, STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD SHIFT THE TRACK WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD THEN WESTWARD
WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE EAST OF THE MASCARENE
ARCHIPELAGO,  TRACKING  NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON MONDAY. MOREOVER, THE
BUILD-UP OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK,  WHICH CAN EVEN TEMPORARILY COME TO
DOMINATE AT THE END OF THE PERIODE, WILL TEMPORARILY GIVE COMPETING
STEERING FLOWS. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM THIS MOMENT ON. A STRONG DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS, HENCE A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DISTANCE OF
PASSAGE NEAR THE INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS.

A REMNANT NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT AND NEARBY DRY AIR COULD SOMEWHAT
CONTAIN INTENSITY FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WITH BATSIRAI'S TIGHT
CIRCULATION, RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE VERY LIKELY AND WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY FROM MONDAY, A
LARGER CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AND A TRACK GETTING CLOSER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE COULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THANKS TO A BETTER SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND A STRONG OCEAN HEAT POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE OR LESS INFLUENCED BY THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MODERATE SHEAR ZONE, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON ITS
POTENTIAL. INTENSIFICATION INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN A
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
INHABITED LANDS.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE
WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN. MAURITIUS COULD BE IMPACTED FROM WEDNESDAY
ON, WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE BUT ALSO ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND ON THE TIMING OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONSET. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND
DANGEROUS SEA INCREASING AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENES (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION) ARE
ADVISED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE RSMC'S FORECAST UPDATE=

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