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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220129071721.4A2F51C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 07:17:21 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 290635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/2/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 71.2 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/29 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 0 NW: 45

36H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 17.7 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 53.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 80 SW: 60 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED WITH
A LOW LEVEL CENTER THAT REMAINED UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE CLOUD
PATTERN LOOKING MORE LIKE A CDO AT 00Z, HAS PROGRESSIVELY TURNED INTO
A CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH A COLD BAND EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR,
SUGGESTED BY THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND CORROBORATED BY THE LATEST CIMMS
DATA. THE MAX WIND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE SMAP DATA FROM 0121Z, AS
WELL AS THE ASCAT-B FROM 0507Z WHICH SUGGESTS STORM WINDS FORCE  IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THESE OBJECTIVE DATA, BATSIRAI HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

BATSIRAI IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SLIGHTLY TODAY TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN, ATTRACTED BY A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH
GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHOULD CURVE THE TRACK TOWARDS
WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN WEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE
EAST OF THE MASCARENES WITH A TRACK DRIFTING NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON
MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE SETTING OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL TO THE
NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, COULD
TEMPORARILY GENERATE CONTRADICTORY DIRECTING FLOWS. THE UNCERTAINTY
ON THE TRACK INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT MOMENT. A STRONG
DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, HENCE A STRONG
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

THE SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERN CONSTRAINTS ALOFT SHOULD MORE OR LESS
CONTAIN THE DEPENING FOR THIS WEEKEND. BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION REMAIN SMALL, RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY, DIFFICULT
TO PREDICT, REMAIN QUITE POSSIBLE. FROM SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY FROM
MONDAY, THE CONSTITUTION OF A LARGER LOW CIRCULATION AND AN EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE UPPER RIDGE COULD ALLOW AN INTENSIFICATION,
THANKS TO A BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
A STRONG OCEANIC POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE
OR LESS INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MODERATE SHEAR ZONE,
BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSIFICATION POTENTIAL.
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST OF RODRIGUES.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A DISTANCE
STILL UNCERTAIN. MAURITIUS COULD BE CONCERNED FROM TUESDAY /
WEDNESDAY, AGAIN WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRAJECTORY BUT ALSO
ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME AND ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF
THE DEGRADATION. WITH THE PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND
DANGEROUS SEAS INCREASING AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
THE INHABITANTS OF THE MASCARENE ISLANDS (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND
REUNION) ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECASTS
AND TO PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR A POSSIBLE THREAT OF A MATURE TROPICAL
SYSTEM.=

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