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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220129082452.F1A881C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 08:24:52 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 290824
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continues to
build across eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between this building high pressure and the equatorial=20
trough in the eastern north Pacific is supporting strong- gale
force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The strong gales will
continue today before starting to gradually diminish tonight and
Sun morning. Winds will diminish below gale- force by Sun
afternoon, then will remain strong through Sun night. Seas will=20
peak near 20 ft, with a large plume of 12 ft seas reaching as=20
far as 10N100W. Please read the latest NWS Offshore Zones=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!rPLLr-6CsmNsT7hQK3DDbXsHr6QoQzE4UcxaBhDA0iNmHkdr_-kA-dowR21p2ewq0=
bKUi1tx$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N105W. The ITCZ=20
extends from 05N105W to 07N121W. It resumes from 06N131W to=20
04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N=20
between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong=20
convection is noted from 08N to 20N between 119W and 130W, and=20
from 10N to 20N between 130W and 140W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Strong gale- force gap winds prevail over the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec with seas to 11 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds are=20
along the Gulf of California. Seas over this area are in the 5-7
ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the=20
open waters off Mexico, with wave heights in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. High pressure over the
Great Basin will supporting fresh to strong NW winds over the=20
entire Gulf of California through this morning. Building high=20
pressure west of California early next week is expected to=20
produce increasing NW winds and building seas over the waters=20
west of Baja California Norte and the N Gulf of California.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region=20
with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Light to moderate winds are noted=20
elsewhere with seas of 3-5 ft.=20

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse in the=20
Papagayo region tonight through Mon night. Moderate N winds in=20
the Gulf of Panama will reach fresh speeds at night tonight=20
through Mon. Over the remainder of the area, winds will remain=20
tranquil for the next several days. Large NW swell from an=20
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread to the=20
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters this morning through=20
Sun morning.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 14N124W to 06N128W. High pressure=20
prevails over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient=20
between this area of high pressure and the surface trough is=20
supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft NE of the=20
trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail=20
elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, the surface trough is forecast to amplify=20
during the weekend. The deepening trough will be accompanied by=20
fresh to strong NE to E winds along with building seas within an=20
area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between 125W-135W. It is=20
possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this=20
transpires, then near-gale to gale force winds could occur within
that area on Sun. Seas are anticipated to peak near 12 ft.

On Mon and Tue, strong high pressure building west of California
is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds and building=20
seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of both the N to NE
wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
AL


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