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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 11:37:21 +0000
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845 
AWIO20 FMEE 291135

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/29 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 013/02 issued at 06UTC on Severe Tropical Storm BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow remains present over a large central part of the basin and feeds the active monsoon trough (TM) located from 10S/55E to 17S/85E, in the center of which tropical system BATSIRAI is embedded. Convective activity is also strong on the northern side of the TM as well as in its southeastern part.

Several equatorial waves are particularly active over the basin, including MJO and Equatorial Rossby waves.

Severe Tropical Storm BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC : 18.0S / 70.3E
Movement : West-North-West 8kt
Maximum wind averaged over 10min :50kt
Minimum central pressure : 987hPa
For more information, refer to WTIO20 and WTIO30 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the eastern part of the basin :

During the next week, with the BATSIRAI system moving westward from the basin, a second pole of convergence should take advantage of it to reform in the eastern part of the TM, thanks to a renewed surface convergence between a well-established monsoon flow and the trade winds on the edge of the subtropical high pressure belt. A fairly long low-level clockwise circulation is thus suggested by most numerical models, within which one or two vorticity nuclei could develop, in a favorable environment. Even if the majority option is in favour of a circulation that remains elongated and without very marked deepening, of the monsoon depression type, some scenarios, still in the minority, manage to form a more compact and closed circulation reaching the storm stage. The probability of cyclogenesis is therefore considered low from Wednesday, but could increase at the end of the week. The target area is quite large due to vorticity precursors that may be located at various locations sca
 ttered b
 etween 65E and 90E. In any case, the eventual formation of this system would be away from populated land.

Residual low ANA :

The large residual low-pressure area remains centered over extreme southeastern Angola around 16S/21E, where it is still generating heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms. Over the next few days, as the low pressure system fills by the end of the weekend, this heavy rainfall could shift over Namibia.

There is a low risk that another tropical storm may develop over the eastern part of the basin from Wednesday onwards.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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