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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220129132620.BF0501C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 13:26:20 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 291244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/2/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 69.9 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 17.1 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 240 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 280 SW: 325 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 240 SW: 345 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0+.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN GRADUALLY RETURNED TO A
CDO PATTERN, WITH A LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATED CLOSEST TO THE
CONVECTIVE BURST. THE TOP OF THIS CDO HAS COOLED, AND THE CURVED BAND
HAS DISSOLVED. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF WIND
SHEAR ALOFT (SHEAR ARC) FROM EAST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER THIS
CONSTRAINT IS TO BE PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0836Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE
PARTIAL  0556Z GMI ONE DEPICT THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LAYER
CORE. THE MAX WIND INTENSITY IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE
DATA (SATCON, ADT, AIDT) AND SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK ANALYSIS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
TRACK TOWARDS WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE SLOWING DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE SYSTEM
IS DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. FROM
SUNDAY, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS SOUTH OF
MADAGASCAR SHOULD BEND THE TRAJECTORY TOWARDS WEST-NORTH-WEST THEN
WEST WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NEAR THE EAST OF THE MASCARENES WITH
A TRAJECTORY PASSING NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION, THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, COULD TEMPORARILY GENERATE
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS, THUS MARKING EARLY NEXT WEEK A LITTLE
MORE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY. FROM TUESDAY, BATSIRAI
SHOULD CURVE ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST, NORTH OF THE SISTER ISLANDS,
DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. A
STRONG DISPERSION IS STILL PRESENT IN THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS, HENCE A
STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND DISTANCE OF PASSAGE NEAR THE
INHABITED LANDS OF THE MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.

BATSIRAI CURRENTLY BENEFITS FROM CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE MAINTENANCE OF A NORTH-EAST CONSTRAINT DOES NOT MANAGE TO LIMIT
ITS INTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WITH A SMALL CIRCULATION, RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY,
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, ARE STILL QUITE POSSIBLE. FROM SUNDAY, THANKS
TO A BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW, THE CONSTITUTION OF A
LARGER LOW  COULD ALLOW A MORE FRANK INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BE MORE OR LESS INFLUENCED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR ALOFT, BRINGING UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL OF
INTENSIFICATION. AN INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SEEMS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF RODRIGUES ISLAND.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
BATSIRAI WILL STAY AWAY FROM INHABITED LANDS UNTIL SUNDAY INCLUDED.
ON MONDAY, IT COULD CIRCULATE NEAR THE NORTH OF RODRIGUES AT A
DISTANCE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER THE FIRST RAINS COULD CONCERN
RODRIGUES AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTENSIFY AT THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTS. MAURITIUS COULD BE CONCERNED
FROM TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY, ALSO WITH A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRAJECTORY BUT ALSO ON THE INTENSITY THAT WILL HAVE THE SYSTEM AT
THIS TIME AND ON THE CHRONOLOGY OF THE DEGRADATION. WITH THE
PROBABILITY OF VERY DISTURBED WEATHER AND DANGEROUS SEAS INCREASING
AT THE BEGINNING OR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF THE
MASCARENE ISLANDS (RODRIGUES, MAURITIUS AND REUNION) ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECASTS AND TO PREPARE
THEMSELVES FOR A POSSIBLE THREAT OF A MATURE TROPICAL SYSTEM.=

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