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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220129160856.9484D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 16:08:56 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 291607
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure across=20
eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico tightens the pressure=20
gradient against the equatorial trough in the eastern north=20
Pacific, thus leading to the continuation of strong-gale force=20
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The strong gales=20
will continue today before starting to gradually diminish tonight
and Sun morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Sun=20
afternoon, then will remain strong through Sun night. Seas will=20
peak near 20 ft late tonight, with a large plume of 12 ft seas=20
reaching as far as 10N100W. Please read the latest NWS Offshore=20
Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!ra-2N0vP0anSHYlQAgaGRJ-LjY04zvlkyGSMfKhY6tXUMu_haVHf6UDzRKuq6YDRC=
lqYI8zy$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 08N86W to 04N97W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 04N98W to 04N111W to 09N122W. It resumes from=20
02N136W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
07N E of 83W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Strong gale-force gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region with seas to 17 ft this morning. Strong high pressure over
the Great Basin continue to support fresh NW winds along with
seas to 5 ft along the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N
to NE winds are along the offshore waters of Baja California and
Nayarit, Mexico with seas to 5 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle
variable winds and seas to 5 ft in NW swell are across the
remainder SW Mexican offshore waters.=20

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. High pressure over the
Great Basin will diminish later this morning, and winds along the
Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds. Strong high
pressure will build west of California early next week along with
a surface trough just right off the coast. The pressure gradient
between these two features will lead to moderate to fresh NW
winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to
9 ft in NW swell.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region=20
with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
are in the Gulf of Panama and Colombia offshores with seas in the
4 to 5 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to 5 ft
are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force NE winds will pulse=20
in the Papagayo through Mon night. Moderate to fresh N winds in=20
the Gulf of Panama will continue through Mon, increasing to
strong speeds at night. Large NW swell from an ongoing Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec gap wind event will spread to the Guatemala and El=20
Salvador offshore waters this morning through Sun morning. Light
to gentle winds are expected to remain elsewhere through Wed.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 14N124W to 06N128W. High pressure=20
prevails over the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient=20
between this area of high pressure and the surface trough is=20
supporting fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft NE of the=20
trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail=20
elsewhere.=20

For the forecast, the surface trough is forecast to amplify=20
during the weekend. The deepening trough will be accompanied by=20
fresh to strong NE to E winds along with building seas within an=20
area roughly bounded from 10N-22N and between 125W-135W. It is=20
possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this=20
transpires, then near-gale to gale force winds could occur within
that area on Sun. Seas are anticipated to peak near 12 ft.

On Mon and Tue, strong high pressure building west of California
is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds and building=20
seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of both the N to NE
wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
Ramos


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