Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220129195442.53B121C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 19:54:42 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1643486088-42315-2735"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1643486088-42315-2735
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 291952
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/29 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8 S / 69.2 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 65.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 220 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 215 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 17.1 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 325 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 55.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 240 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 325 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

DURING THE LAST HOURS, BATSIRAI'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH A CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO WITH PARTICULARLY COLD CLOUD
TOPS AND MAYBE THE START OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED DATA. ELECTRICAL
ACTIVITY IS ALSO DETECTED BY THE WWLLN NETWORK NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
PHENOMENON. THE ASCAT SWATHS OF 1650Z AND 1738Z AND THE 1424Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF BATISRAI IS STILL VERY
TIGHT, ABOUT 100KM IN DIAMETER. A SMAP SWATH AT 1331Z GAVE 72KT IN
MAXIMUM WIND, WHILE THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATHS GAVE 58KT. IN VIEW OF
THESE ELEMENTS AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
ESTIMATIONS, BATSIRAI IS CLASSIFIED AS A 70KT TROPICAL CYCLONE.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF RODRIGUES ON
MONDAY BETWEEN 150 AND 400KM PROBABLY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE  MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
BATISIRAI IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION MAY LEAD TO CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY IS FAR MORE MARKED FOR THE LATE RANGE AS
REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TOMORROW AND MONDAY, A WEAK NORTHERLY
CONSTRAINT COULD TEMPORARILY APPEAR AND FAVOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM ENHANCED BY ITS SMALL SIZE. LARGER FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE.FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
FAVOURABLE AGAIN, WHICH MEANS THAT THE DIFFERENT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
EXPECTING AN INTENSIFICATION AND A WIDENING OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE.
TROPICAL OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE SEEMS THEREFORE VERY
LIKELY.  HOWEVER, THE PRESENT INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT
IS THEREFORE STILL UNCERTAIN IN DETAIL.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A DEGRADATION (NOTABLY A RISK OF HEAVY RAINS) OF THE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW EVENING. BUT IT SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE AND THE SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON.
THE ISLAND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE GALE WINDS (5% CHANCE OF
OVERTAKING)

- FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS MAY
START FROM TUESDAY. HOWEVER ITS EXTENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRACK, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TWO ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE CONCERNED BY A RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN, AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
(40-60% CHANCE) THAT THEY COULD BE AFFECTED BY GALE FORCE WINDS.=

------------=_1643486088-42315-2735
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1643486088-42315-2735--