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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220129220645.7564A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 29 Jan 2022 22:06:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 292206
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2120 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure across=20
eastern Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico tightens the pressure=20
gradient against the equatorial trough in the eastern north=20
Pacific, thus leading to the continuation of strong-gale force=20
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gales will=20
start to gradually diminish tonight and Sun morning. Winds will=20
diminish below gale-force by Sun afternoon, then will remain=20
strong through Sun night. Peak seas are 20 ft with a large plume
of 12 ft seas reaching as far as 11N98W. Please read the latest=20
NWS Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the National Hurricane=20
Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text=
/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!vNHSe_pZ-GBqgoNlz9do02Qr36MrKlAgzvbtI2f7jr9Sqfp=
5Kqkw3nxyb1_ztxnRWyitJnuX$=20=20
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 04N77W to 07N86W to 03N98W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 04N100W to 04N116W to 09N125W then resumes=20
from 04N136W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from=20
02N to 07N E of 84W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Strong gale-force gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region with seas to 20 ft this afternoon. High pressure over the
Great Basin has weakened and NW winds along the Gulf of
California have diminished to moderate speeds while seas have
subsided to 3 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are along the
offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 5 ft in NW=20
swell. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft in NW=20
swell are across the remainder SW Mexican offshore waters.=20

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Strong high pressure=20
will build west of California early next week along with a=20
surface trough just right off the coast. The pressure gradient=20
between these two features will lead to moderate to fresh NW=20
winds over the Baja California Norte offshore waters with seas to
9 ft in NW swell.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region=20
with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
are in the Gulf of Panama and Colombia offshores with seas in=20
the 4 to 5 ft range. Light to gentle variable winds with seas to=20
5 ft in mixed swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force NE winds will pulse at
night in the Papagayo region through Mon night. Moderate NE winds
will then continue through the middle of the week. Moderate to=20
fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through Mon,=20
increasing to fresh to strong speeds at night. Large NW swell=20
from an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue=20
to affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through=20
Sun morning. Light to gentle winds are expected to remain=20
elsewhere through Thu.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 05N131W to 16N123W. Latest
scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE winds from 09N to 15N
between 123W and 129W. Seas within this region are 8 to 9 ft.
Aside from the winds and seas, this area of low pressure is
supporting heavy showers from 10N to 20N between 121W and 136W.=20
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the surface trough is forecast to amplify=20
through Sun while it moves NW. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
to continue associated with it with seas to 11 ft. It is=20
possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this=20
transpires, then near-gale to gale force winds could occur over
the NW open forecast waters. Seas are anticipated to peak near=20
12 ft.

On Mon and Tue, strong high pressure building west of California
is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds and building=20
seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of both the N to NE
wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
Ramos


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