Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220130010717.5B4BF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 01:07:17 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1643504843-42315-3113"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1643504843-42315-3113
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 300043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5 S / 68.2 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 35
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 30
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1002 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 280 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 185 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 57.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 285 SW: 295 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 315 SW: 335 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0+

DURING THE LAST HOURS, BATSIRAI'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH THE PERISSTENCE OF AN ILL DEFINED EYE. 1913Z GMI AND 2107Z AMSR2
SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS WELL DEFINED AROUND A CLEAN EYE. IN
AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, INTENSITY IS
UPGRADED TO 80KT.

NO MAJOR CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS NORTH OF RODRIGUES TOMORROW
MONDAY BETWEEN 200 AND 500KM PROBABLY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
BATISIRAI IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION MAY LEAD TO CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY IS  MORE MARKED FOR THE LATE RANGE AS
REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY BENEFITING FROM GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
FURTHER INTENSIFCIATION TODAY IS POSSIBLE. FROM MONDAY, A WEAK NORTH
TO NORTH-EASTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD TEMPORARILY APPEAR AND FAVOR A
SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, ENHANCED BY ITS SMALL SIZE. LARGER
FLUCTUATIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, ALL THE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME FAVOURABLE AGAIN, SHOWN BY THE FACT THAT THE
DIFFERENT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE EXPECTING AN INTENSIFICATION AND A
WIDENING OF THE SYSTEM'S CORE. TROPICAL OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE SEEMS THEREFORE VERY LIKELY.  HOWEVER, THE PRESENT INTENSITY
FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. IT IS THEREFORE STILL UNCERTAIN IN DETAIL.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A SHALLOW DEGRADATION (NOTABLY A RISK OF HEAVY
RAINS) OF THE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW EVENING. BUT IT
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE AND THE SIZE OF THE
PHENOMENON. THE ISLAND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE GALE WINDS (LESS
THAN 5% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING WINDS)

- FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS MAY
START FROM TUESDAY. HOWEVER ITS EXTENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRACK, INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TWO ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE CONCERNED BY A RISK OF
HEAVY RAIN, AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
(40-60% CHANCE) THAT THEY COULD BE AFFECTED BY GALE FORCE WINDS.=

------------=_1643504843-42315-3113
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1643504843-42315-3113--