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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220130023055.5298D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 02:30:55 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 300230
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure prevails=20
across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern=20
north Pacific continues to support strong gale- force winds=20
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Winds will start to=20
gradually diminish tonight, diminishing below gale- force by Sun
afternoon. Winds will remain strong through Sun night before
diminishing further by Mon morning. Seas are peaking near 20 ft,=20
with a large plume of 12 ft seas reaching as far as 11N100W.=20
Please read the latest NWS Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!shLsnNkqz5WgB2f_roI_0IHUaub7CwM8ki4ZrGLKArREb1OaQ1yBC8tRPgigj_tEr=
SkMS0Ql$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N85W to 06N98W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 06N98W to 05N112W to 08N125W. It then resumes=20
from 05N136W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from=20
01N to 06N between 80W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 10N to 20N between 120W and 135W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 135W and
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Strong gale- force gap winds prevail over the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec region with seas to 20 ft. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail over the Gulf of California as well as west of the Baja
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range
over the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico.=20

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Building high pressure
west of California will produce increasing NW winds and building
seas over the waters west of Baja California Norte and the N=20
Gulf of California the middle of next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region=20
with seas in the 5-7 ft range. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
6 ft are over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 4-5 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force NE winds will pulse at
night in the Papagayo region through Mon night. Moderate NE winds
will then continue through the middle of the week. Moderate to=20
fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through Mon,=20
increasing to fresh to strong speeds at night. Large NW swell=20
from an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue=20
to affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through=20
Sun morning. Light to gentle winds are expected to remain=20
elsewhere through Thu.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 17N128W to 07N131W. The pressure
gradient between high pressure over the northern waters and the
surface trough is supporting fresh to strong winds in the
vicinity of the trough, with seas to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere with seas in the 5-7 ft range.=20=20

For the forecast, the surface trough is forecast to amplify=20
through Sun while it moves NW. Fresh to strong winds will
continue in the vicinity of the trough, with seas peaking near=20
11 ft. It is possible that a low could briefly form along the=20
trough. If this transpires, then near- gale to gale force winds=20
could occur over the NW open forecast waters.=20

On Mon and Tue, strong high pressure building west of California
is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds and building=20
seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of both the N to NE
wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
AL


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