Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220130065923.C4B421C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 06:59:23 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1643525966-42315-3242"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1643525966-42315-3242
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 300639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 67.1 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/30 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 270 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 165 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 315 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 280 SW: 305 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 305 SW: 350 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

AT THE END OF THE NIGHT, THE CLOUD CONFIGURATION OF BATSIRAI HAS
SLIGHTLY DEGRADED WITH THE TEMPORARY LOSS OF THE EYE CONFIGURATION.
IN THE LAST HOURS, THE EYE HAS REAPPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
TENDS TO IMPROVE IN DEFINITION. MICROWAVE IMAGING SHOWS A STILL VERY
COMPACT CORE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES (INCLUDING A SMOS
PASS AT 72 KT THIS MORNING) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE.

NO BIG CHANGE ON THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS TRACK
TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF RODRIGUES
TOMORROW MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, BATISIRAI SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION
MAY GIVE RISE TO CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS
LONG-RANGE MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED A BIT NORTH
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY ENJOYING GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FROM ALL
POINTS OF VIEW. WHILE AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD BE
FELT AT TIMES, THE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE RATHER FAVORABLE FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
RELATED TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S) ARE LIKELY LEADING TO AN
ENLARGEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY
OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAIN AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS (NOTABLY A
RISK OF HEAVY RAINS) IS EXPECTED FROM THE NEXT NIGHT UNTIL HUSBAND.
BUT IT SHOULD BE QUITE LIMITED BY THE DISTANCE OF PASSAGE AND THE
SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON. THE ISLAND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE GALE
(LESS THAN 5% CHANCE OF OVERTAKING)

- FOR MAURITIUS AND REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS SHOULD
START FROM TUESDAY. HOWEVER ITS EXTENT IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TRAJECTORY, THE INTENSITY AND THE
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE TWO ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE CONCERNED
BY A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN, AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. IT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE (40-60% CHANCE) THAT THEY COULD BE AFFECTED BY GALE
FORCE WINDS.=

------------=_1643525966-42315-3242
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1643525966-42315-3242--