Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220130114927.784101C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 11:49:27 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1643543372-42315-3286"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1643543372-42315-3286
Content-Type: text/plain


622 
AWIO20 FMEE 301147

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN 
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 

DATE: 2022/01/30 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 017/02 issued at 06UTC on Severe Tropical Storm BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow remains present over a large central part of the basin and feeds a monsoon trough (MT) located around 10-12oS east of 85oE. The basin configuration west of 85oE is strongly driven by the presence of cyclone BATSIRAI north of the Mascarene Islands. In addition to this tropical system, the convective activity is strong on the northern side of the TM.

Wave analyses show that several waves are particularly active over the basin, including MJO and Rossby Equatorial.

Cyclone BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC : 17oS / 66.7oE

Movement : West-Northwest 9 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 80 kt

Minimum central pressure : 963 hPa

For more information, please refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the eastern part of the basin :

During next week, while BATSIRAI moves westward, a second area of convergence should take advantage of it and reform in the eastern part of the MT, thanks to renewed surface convergence between a well-established monsoon flow and the trade winds on the edge of the subtropical high. A fairly elongated low-level clockwise circulation is thus suggested by most numerical models, within which one or two tighter vorticity areas could develop, in a favorable environment. Even if the main scenario favoured by models keeps this circulation rather elongated looking like broad monsoon low, a few scenarios manage to form a more compact and closed circulation reaching tropical storm stage. Cyclogenesis potential is therefore considered low from Wednesday, but could increase by the week-end. The risk area is quite large due to vorticity precursors that may be located at various locations between 65E and 90E. In case of storm formation, it would happen away from inhabited lands.

Residual low ANA :

The large residual low-pressure area remains centered over extreme southeastern Angola, around 18S/20E, where it is still generating heavy rainfall and isolated thunderstorms. Over the next few days, as the low pressure system gradually fills, this heavy rainfall could shift over eastern Namibia.

There is a low risk that another tropical storm may develop over the eastern part of the basin from Wednesday onwards.

 
NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%
                                                                                                                                         
The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.


------------=_1643543372-42315-3286
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1643543372-42315-3286--