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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220130131205.5ADB51C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 13:12:05 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 301235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 66.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 240 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 17.6 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.3 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 360 SW: 345 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/04 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 325 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.0+

THE BATSIRAI EYE PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN FLUCTUATIONS
DURING THE DAY, IMPROVING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND LESS WELL
DEFINED IN THE LAST IMAGES. THE INTENSITY REMAINS ESTIMATED AT 80 KT,
POTENTIALLY A BIT CONSERVATIVE, BASED ON THE LAST OBJECTIVE AND
SUBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

NO BIG CHANGE ON THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. BATSIRAI CONTINUES ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH
OF RODRIGUES TOMORROW MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY CURVE TOWARDS THE
WEST-SOUTH-WEST AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, BATISIRAI SHOULD SLOW DOWN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
APPEARANCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THIS SITUATION
MAY GIVE RISE TO CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MORE
PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF THE RANGE AS REFLECTED IN THE VARIOUS
LONG-RANGE MODELS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED A BIT NORTH
IN LINE WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

BATSIRAI IS CURRENTLY WITHIN RATHER GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
WHILE AN EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY CONSTRAINT COULD BE FELT AT TIMES, THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE RATHER FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE(S) ARE LIKELY, LEADING TO SOME BROADENING OF THE
WIND FIELD. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.

POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- FOR RODRIGUES, A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS (NOTABLY A
RISK OF BRIEF HEAVY RAINS) IS EXPECTED FROM THE NEXT NIGHT UNTIL
TUESDAY.

- FOR MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION, A DEGRADATION OF THE CONDITIONS
SHOULD START FROM TUESDAY. WITH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE LAST
GUIDANCE, THE SCENARIO OF AN INFLUENCE OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE INNER
CORE OF THE SYSTEM BECOMES THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO: HEAVY RAINS ON
THE RELIEFS (NOTABLY REUNION) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT CAN APPROACH
100 KM/H OR LOCALLY EXCEED THEM. THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE
CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.=

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