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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220130155248.D8FDF1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 15:52:48 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 301552
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure prevails=20
across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this
area of high pressure and the equatorial trough in the eastern=20
north Pacific continues to support gale-force winds across the=20
Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The area of high pressure will start=20
to weaken and shift eastward today. This will loosen the pressure
gradient enough to diminish winds below gale-force by this=20
afternoon. Winds will remain strong through tonight before=20
diminishing further by Mon morning. Seas are peaking near 13 ft,
with a large plume of 12 ft seas reaching as far as 10N99W.=20
Please read the latest NWS Offshore Zones Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!r4lL6aXTP-JkZtdCmmegGf0gKceelsymjQKAqp4coYP-az2fzRm4y4YPW4rr3sQCN=
J-wea-z$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 06N86W to 05N96W. The=20
ITCZ extends from 05N97W to 07N115W to 09N129W. It then resumes=20
from 07N138W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 15N between 124W and 136W.=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event.

Gale-force gap winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region
with seas to 13 ft this morning. Gentle to moderate winds=20
prevail over the Gulf of California as well as west of the Baja=20
California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere=20
over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range=20
over the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the open=20
waters off Mexico.

For the forecast, see the Special Features section for the Gulf
of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Building high pressure
west of California will produce increasing NW winds and building
seas over the waters west of Baja California Norte and the
northern Gulf of California Tue night through Thu morning. In the
northern Gulf of California, NW winds are forecast to reach=20
fresh to strong speeds and seas to 8 ft from Wed through Fri
night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected elsewhere along
the Gulf of California during that period.=20=20

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region=20
with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
6 ft are over the Gulf of Panama reaching as far as 03N. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds and seas to 5 ft are across the Ecuador
and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Light to gentle variable=20
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail in the=20
Papagayo region through Tue morning. Moderate NE winds will then
continue through Thu. Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of=20
Panama will continue through Tue evening, increasing to locally=20
strong speeds again tonight. Moderate N to NE winds will then
continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Large NW swell from=20
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to=20
affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through this
afternoon. Light to gentle winds are expected to remain elsewhere
through Thu.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 17N128W to 07N131W. The pressure
gradient between high pressure over the northern waters and the
surface trough is supporting fresh to strong winds in the
vicinity of the trough, with seas to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate=20
winds prevail elsewhere with seas in the 5-7 ft range.=20

For the forecast, the surface trough is forecast to amplify=20
today while it moves NW. Fresh to strong winds will continue in=20
the vicinity of the trough, with seas peaking near 11 ft. It is=20
possible that a low could briefly form along the trough. If this=20
transpires, then near- gale to gale force winds could occur over=20
the NW open forecast waters.=20

On Mon and Tue, strong high pressure building west of California
is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds and building=20
seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of both the N to NE
wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
Ramos


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