Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220130191749.920C21C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 19:17:49 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1643570274-42315-3455"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1643570274-42315-3455
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 301827
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/30 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 65.3 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 280 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/01/31 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 350 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/01 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 60.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 360 SW: 370 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 425 SW: 400 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

72H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 380 SW: 350 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 52.9 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 390 SW: 345 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/04 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 50.5 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 470 SW: 435 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS PROGRESSIVELY LOST ITS EYE
PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, EVOLVING INTO AN EMBEDED CENTER UNDER A
STILL VERY ACTIVE CDO (CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85AOC, DETECTION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY). SSMIS MICROWAVE 1206Z AND 1410Z DATA SHOW
THAT THE SYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE CORE HAS BEEN PARTIALLY ERODED ON ITS
SOUTHEAST SIDE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON A CDO PATTERN GIVES A T-NUMBER OF 5.0,
CONSISTENT WITH ADT AND SATCON OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES. FINAL INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE LEFT STATIONARY AT 80KT.

BATSIRAI KEEPS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A STEERING FLOW
GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL PASS MORE THAN
350 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES THIS MONDAY THEN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE ITS
TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST, MAKING IT PASS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
SAINT-BRANDON ON TUESDAY. IT WILL THEN TAKE A WEST-SOUTH-WEST TURN AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, BATISIRAI SHOULD
BE TRACKING AT SEA TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES A BIT WEAKER. UNDER
SOMEWHAT COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST RANGE, ESPECIALLY WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT RUN, THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE DEEP
EAST-NORTHEAST SHEAR SHOULD CONTAIN BATSIRAI'S INTENSIFICATION. THIS
SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD SLIGHTLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH,
COMBINED WITH OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR
INTENSIFICATION, PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR MORE EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY, LEADING TO AN ENLARGEMENT OF THE
CENTRAL CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH MECHANISMS
MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIQUES : RATHER MARGINALLY DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ON MONDAY.
- SAINT-BRANDON : EXTREMELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY.
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE FROM TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S VIOLENT CORE SHOULD TRACK
ABOUT 200 KM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS ONLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINS (ENHANCED ON
HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION ISLAND) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT COULD APPROACH OR LOCALLY EXCEED 100 KM/H. THESE FORECASTS STILL
NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE ON THE EAST COAST EXPECTED
BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (UNCERTAIN TIMING THOUGH), POTENTIALLY
STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE, BUT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE IMPACT AREA.=

------------=_1643570274-42315-3455
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1643570274-42315-3455--