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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220130215500.163F61C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2022 21:55:00 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 302154
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 04N85W to 05N93W. The 
ITCZ extends from 05N93W to 08N110W to 10N131W. It then resumes 
from 09N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 03S to 03N E of 89W, and from 08N to 19N between 126W and 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Return flow has established across the Gulf of Mexico and N to NE
gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished below gale 
force by 2100 UTC. Strong winds are confined mainly to N of 14N,
however fresh NE to E winds reach as far as 06N and 106W with
seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. Peak seas in the area of strong
winds are 10 ft. Gentle to moderate N to NW winds prevail over 
the Gulf of California as well as west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the SW 
Mexico offshore waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the 
Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will remain strong in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec through tonight before diminishing further by Mon 
morning. Building high pressure west of California will produce
increasing NW winds and building seas over the waters west of 
Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California Tue 
night through Thu morning. In the northern Gulf of California, NW
winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds and seas to 8
ft from Wed through Fri night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are 
expected elsewhere along the Gulf of California during that 
period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region 
with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Fresh to strong winds and seas to
6 ft are over the Gulf of Panama reaching as far as 03N. Gentle
to moderate S to SW winds and seas to 5 ft are across the Ecuador
and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Light to gentle variable 
winds and seas of 4-5 ft are elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through Tue morning. Moderate NE winds will then
continue through Thu. Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will continue through Tue evening, increasing to locally 
strong speeds again tonight. Moderate N to NE winds will then
continue in the Gulf of Panama through Thu. Large NW swell from 
an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to 
affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters through this
afternoon. Light to gentle winds are expected to remain elsewhere
through Thu. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 13N130W to 05N136W. A second trough
is farther north from 19N133W to 27N132W. The pressure gradient
between high pressure elsewhere over the northern waters and the
surface troughs is supporting fresh to strong winds and seas in
the 8 to 11 ft range from 13N to 23N between 123W and 133W.
Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere from 10N to
27N W of 115W with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range.  

For the forecast, the surface trough over the NW open waters is 
forecast to slightly weaken today while it moves NW. Fresh to
locally strong winds will continue in the vicinity of the trough
with seas to 10 ft. 

On Mon and Tue, strong high pressure building west of California
is expected to produce increasing N to NE winds and building 
seas north of 27N. The seas will be a product of both the N to NE
wind waves and large long-period NW swell.

$$
Ramos


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