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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220131011156.007871C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 01:11:55 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 310030
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/01/31 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.3 S / 64.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 370 SW: 405 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/01/31 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/01 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 360 SW: 390 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 350 SW: 370 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

60H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 405 SW: 390 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 195
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 19.8 S / 49.9 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 530 SW: 435 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 315 SW: 280 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, BATSIRAI HAS KEPT A CDO PATTERN DISPLAYING
VERY STRONG CONVECTION (CLOUD TOPS NEAR -85/-90AOC, THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY). OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVE A T-NUMBER
NEAR 5.0. WITHOUT ANY OTHER AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA, FINAL INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE LEFT STATIONARY AT 80KT.

BATSIRAI KEEPS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD, DRIVEN BY A
STEERING FLOW GENERATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM'S CENTER
WILL TRACK MORE THAN 350 KM NORTH OF RODRIGUES THIS MONDAY THEN WILL
GRADUALLY CURVE ITS TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST, MAKING IT
TRACK IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SAINT-BRANDON ON TUESDAY, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD. BY MID-WEEK, BATISIRAI SHOULD BE
TRACKING AT SEA TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND WHILE
SLOWING DOWN AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH
AND A WEEK RIDGE ALSO DEVELOPS EAST OF THE MASCARENES, WHILE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. UNDER VARIOUS
COMPETING STEERING FLOWS, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST RANGE, ESPECIALLY WHILE APPROACHING THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR
AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE SHORT RUN, MID-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTAIN
BATSIRAI'S INTENSIFICATION. THIS SHEAR CONSTRAINT SHOULD THEN
SLIGHTLY DIMINISH IN THE COMING DAYS, WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION,
PROBABLY REACHING THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR SEVERAL EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY, LEADING TO A BROADER CENTRAL
CORE. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF SUCH MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- RODRIGUES : MARGINALLY DISTURBED WEATHER THIS MONDAY.
- SAINT-BRANDON : EXTREMELY DISTURBED CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
CYCLONE'S CORE TRACKING IN ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY.
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE FROM TUESDAY. THE CYCLONE'S VIOLENT CORE SHOULD TRACK
ABOUT 200 KM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD THUS ONLY BE
INFLUENCED BY THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM: HEAVY RAINFALL (ENHANCED
ON HIGH TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON REUNION ISLAND) AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
THAT COULD LOCALLY EXCEED 100 KM/H. THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE
CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.
- MADAGASCAR : ARRIVAL OF THE CYCLONE ON THE EAST COAST EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY AND MORE PROBABLY DURING THE WEEK-END (UNCERTAIN TIMING),
POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE, BUT WITH A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT AREA.=

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