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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 07:51:37 +0000
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513 
AXAU21 ABRF 310750
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0750 UTC 31/01/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 150.9E
Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km)
Movement Towards: east (085 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 45 nm (85 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  31/1200: 14.3S 151.7E:     045 (085):  035  (065):  995
+12:  31/1800: 14.7S 152.4E:     060 (105):  040  (075):  992
+18:  01/0000: 15.0S 153.1E:     065 (120):  040  (075):  992
+24:  01/0600: 15.2S 153.7E:     075 (135):  040  (075):  991
+36:  01/1800: 15.3S 154.8E:     085 (160):  035  (065):  994
+48:  02/0600: 15.4S 156.0E:     105 (195):  035  (065):  994
+60:  02/1800: 15.9S 157.4E:     120 (220):  035  (065):  995
+72:  03/0600: 16.9S 158.9E:     130 (245):  030  (055):  998
+96:  04/0600: 19.1S 163.0E:     165 (310):  030  (055):  999
+120: 05/0600: 20.9S 166.5E:     195 (355):  025  (045): 1000
REMARKS:
Tropical low, 16U, will move through the northeast Coral Sea.  

Position is based on animated VIS/IR imagery and recent microwave, but due the
small size of the system there is only a fair amount of confidence in the
position. 

Dvorak as usual will be of limited use for a small system that may rapidly
fluctuate in intensity. Dvorak analysis: DT=3.0 based on curved band wrap of
0.5-0.6. MET=3.0 adjusted higher from D+ 24h trend, PAT agrees. FT/CI=3.0.
Monsoonal flow is the primary generator of low level vorticity, hence the
significant winds are confined to the northern quadrants as depicted in recent
SCAT passes. Microwave shows improving structure over the last 6 hours as shear
decreases (maybe only temporarily). Objective ADT guidance is unavailable.
Given recent SCAT winds and improving microwave imagery intensity is set to 35
kn (northeast quadrant). 

The environment is only marginally favourable and the system has only a slight
chance of reaching tropical cyclone intensity. Gales could extend to the
northwestern quadrant overnight, but during late Tuesday and Wednesday the
system is likely to struggle with dry air likely to weaken the system. 

There is strong confidence in 16U moving ESE under the influence of mid-level
steering and low level monsoonal flow. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1330 UTC.


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