Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.139.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.139.28;
From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Message-ID: <20220131104747.00B7F1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 10:47:46 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-to: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1643626070-42315-3578"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1643626070-42315-3578
Content-Type: text/plain


704 
AWIO20 FMEE 311044

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/01/31 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 021/02 issued at 06UTC on the Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The trans-equatorial monsoon flow remained present over the whole basin defining the equatorial feeding for tropical cyclone BATSIRAI and feeding a monsoon trough (TM) located around 10-12oS east of 80oE. The convective activity is mainly concentrated around the tropical cyclone BATSIRAI and extends on the northern side of the large low pressure area east of the cyclone.In the heart of this low pressure area, an elongated circulation is notable on the last ASCAT swath of 0427UTC.

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI :

Position at 09UTC : 15.9oS / 63.4.7oE

Movement : West-North-West 6 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 80 kt

Minimum central pressure : 962 hPa

For more information, please refer to the WTIO21 and WTIO31 advisories issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the eastern part of the basin :

In the area of low pressure in the eastward extension of tropical cyclone BATSIRAI, a weak elongated circulation is detectable over the ASCAT swath from 0427UTC. Under the impulse of the strengthening of the subtropical ridge, this circulation could go up towards the North without very marked deepening during the next 3 days. The vorticity thus induced will gradually evolve in a more favorable environment and leave a potential for moderate cyclogenesis by Friday. In any case, the eventual formation of this system would be away from inhabited lands.

There is a moderate risk that another moderate tropical storm may develop over the eastern part of the basin from Friday onwards.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

------------=_1643626070-42315-3578
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1643626070-42315-3578--