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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 13:40:34 +0000
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946 
AXAU21 ABRF 311340
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1340 UTC 31/01/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.7S
Longitude: 151.7E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (104 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  31/1800: 15.0S 152.4E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  996
+12:  01/0000: 15.1S 153.0E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  995
+18:  01/0600: 15.2S 153.5E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  996
+24:  01/1200: 15.2S 153.9E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  996
+36:  02/0000: 15.1S 154.7E:     105 (190):  035  (065):  996
+48:  02/1200: 15.3S 155.9E:     130 (240):  035  (065):  996
+60:  03/0000: 16.1S 157.2E:     150 (280):  035  (065):  997
+72:  03/1200: 17.0S 159.3E:     175 (320):  030  (055): 1000
+96:  04/1200: 19.4S 164.3E:     235 (435):  025  (045): 1004
+120: 05/1200: 22.1S 167.7E:     320 (590):  025  (045): 1002
REMARKS:
Tropical low, 16U, moving away from the Australian mainland and battling to
develop further in the northeast Coral Sea. 
Position is based on ASCAT-B at 1105UTC showing the system just off the
southeastern edge of the deep convection. This image, supported by earlier HY2B
scatterometer at 0816UTC, indicates an area of marginal gales extending to
about 60nm north of the centre with significantly lighter winds (~10kn) south
of the centre.   

Centering the position outside the convection results in the system less likely
to extend gales to southern sectors.  
Dvorak: Curved band unclear but on the order of 0.5, while a shear pattern
(<0.5 deg from IR T grad) suggests DT ~2.5, MET=3.0 but PAT reduction to 2.5
resulting in FT=2.5.  Objective ADT guidance is unavailable.  
Intensity of 35kn based on ASCAT and HY2B supported by Dvorak analysis. 

The environment is only marginally favourable and the system may struggle  to
intensify further, and much depends on whether deep convection can extend into
southern sectors in the next 24h. The moist  monsoonal inflow and upper trough
to the south providing strong poleward outflow favour development but dry air
to the south may well limit development to prevent the system reaching TC
intensity. Model guidance is mixed.  

There is strong confidence in an ESE track under the influence of mid-level
steering and low level monsoonal flow. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 31/1930 UTC.


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