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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Message-ID: <20220131184752.1801B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Mon, 31 Jan 2022 18:47:52 +0000
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993 
AXAU21 ABRF 311840
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1839 UTC 31/01/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 152.3E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (114 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/0000: 15.2S 152.9E:     040 (075):  040  (075):  995
+12:  01/0600: 15.3S 153.4E:     055 (100):  040  (075):  996
+18:  01/1200: 15.3S 153.8E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  996
+24:  01/1800: 15.2S 154.2E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  996
+36:  02/0600: 15.3S 155.3E:     105 (190):  035  (065):  996
+48:  02/1800: 15.7S 156.5E:     130 (235):  035  (065):  996
+60:  03/0600: 16.6S 158.1E:     150 (280):  030  (055): 1000
+72:  03/1800: 17.6S 160.4E:     175 (320):  030  (055): 1000
+96:  04/1800: 20.1S 165.4E:     235 (435):  025  (045): 1004
+120: 05/1800: 22.8S 168.2E:     320 (590):  025  (045): 1001
REMARKS:
A tropical low, 16U, is moving away from the Australian mainland and struggling
to develop further in the northeast Coral Sea. 

The satellite signature of 16U remains only marginally organised. Reasonably
long lived bursts of convection continue to the north of the LLCC, but have so
far struggled to consolidate and wrap around the centre. 

Position is based on animated IR imagery and extrapolation from the ASCAT pass
at 1107UTC. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band with approximately
0.45-0.5 wrap. DT is 2.5. MET is 3.0 based on a 24 hour D- trend, but PAT is
reduced to 2.5. Final T and CI 2.5. NESDIS ADT guidance is somewhat higher at
CI 3.1 / 47 knots (1 minute mean). Intensity held at 35 knots, with structure
(gales in northern quadrants only) likewise based on the 11UTC ASCAT pass.  

The environment is only marginally favourable and the system may struggle  to
intensify further in the short to medium term. The system continues to receive
moist low level monsoonal inflow, and lies in an area of diffluent upper level
flow north of an upper trough to the south. However, moderate ESE deep layer
wind shear coupled with dry air to the south may limit development. As a small
system, 16U will respond more rapidly to changes in environmental conditions.  

There is strong confidence in an ESE track under the influence of mid-level
steering and low level monsoonal flow. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0130 UTC.


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