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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 01:09:11 +0000
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336 
AXAU21 ABRF 010102
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0102 UTC 01/02/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 152.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (114 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/0600: 15.1S 152.9E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  998
+12:  01/1200: 15.1S 153.4E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  998
+18:  01/1800: 15.1S 153.9E:     085 (155):  035  (065):  998
+24:  02/0000: 15.2S 154.4E:     100 (185):  035  (065):  998
+36:  02/1200: 15.5S 155.5E:     125 (230):  035  (065):  998
+48:  03/0000: 16.0S 156.7E:     160 (295):  035  (065):  998
+60:  03/1200: 17.0S 158.5E:     185 (345):  030  (055): 1002
+72:  04/0000: 18.0S 160.5E:     200 (365):  030  (055): 1002
+96:  05/0000: 19.8S 164.5E:     280 (520):  025  (045): 1005
+120: 06/0000: 21.8S 167.5E:     360 (660):  025  (045): 1004
REMARKS:
The satellite signature of 16U remains only marginally organised and has shown
little improvement during the overnight period.  

Position is based on animated VIS imagery. There has been no microwave imagery
since 1800UTC. 

Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band with approximately 0.45-0.5 wrap. DT
is 2.5. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour S trend, but PAT is adjusted to 2.5.
Final T and CI 2.5. NESDIS ADT guidance is at CI 2.4 / 34 knots (1 minute mean)
and CIMSS ADT is at CI 2.6/ 37 knots ( 1minute mean) . Intensity held at 35
knots, with structure (gales in northern quadrants only) likewise based on the
19UTC HY-2B pass.  

The environment is only marginally favourable for the next 24 hours or so and
it is possible the low may briefly reach tropical cyclone strength in that time
frame. The system continues to receive moist low level monsoonal inflow, and
lies in an area of diffluent upper level flow north of an upper trough to the
south. However, moderate ESE deep layer wind shear coupled with dry air to the
south may limit development. As a small system, 16U will respond more rapidly
to changes in environmental conditions.  

There is strong confidence in an ESE track under the influence of mid-level
steering and low level monsoonal flow. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/0730 UTC.


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