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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220201011244.8D21B1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 01:12:44 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 010045
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/01 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 62.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/01 12 UTC: 17.2 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 280 SW: 335 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2022/02/02 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 360 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/02 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 315 SW: 345 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 205 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

48H: 2022/02/03 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 56.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 360 SW: 280 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/03 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 335 SW: 425 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 205
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75

72H: 2022/02/04 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 380 SW: 405 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/05 00 UTC: 18.8 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 465 SW: 345 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2022/02/06 00 UTC: 19.1 S / 47.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 95 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 AND CI=4.5-

THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF SUFFERING WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. GPM AND AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL
CORE IS STRONGLY ERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE UNDER THE CONSTRAINT OF
THE EASTERLY SHEAR. THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, MORE AND
MORE SCATTERED, PLEAD HOWEVER FOR A MAINTENANCE AT THE MINIMAL STAGE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (POSSIBLY A LITTLE STRONG ESTIMATE). NOTE THAT
THE LAST IMAGES SEEM TO SHOW THE CONSTITUTION OF A COLD COMMA AND A
BETTER SPREADING OF CIRRUS OUTWARDS OVER THE EASTERN SECTOR (POSSIBLE
BEGINNING OF DECREASE OF THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR).

BATSIRAI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND FROM A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE OF MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE IN THE NORTHEAST. TODAY, WITH
THE SHIFT OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE MAINTENANCE OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO
THE NORTHEAST, IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL TRACK CLOSE
TO THE NORTH OF MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE SLOWING DOWN WHILE A WEAK
RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL PRESSURE TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE SOUTH.
FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FADE, ALLOWING A
RESUMPTION OF A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THE LAST TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE MORE SOUTHERN THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE
PERSISTENT TENDENCY OF THE AROME RUNS TO MAKE THE PHENOMENON TRACKING
FURTHER SOUTH.

WHILE CIMSS IS NOW ANALYZING A DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR APPROACHING 25 KT
(18Z) AND THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, A STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED WEAKENING PHASE HAS SET IN. THIS SHEAR COULD STILL HINDER A
SIGNIFICANT RESUMPTION OF THE INTENSIFICATION TODAY. HOWEVER, ON THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE, WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A MORE DEFINITE RE-INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY
TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS
COULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OVER MADAGASCAR.
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR MORE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY. THE LOW PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS
MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY PREDICTION.
THE LAST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL
STRUCTURE HAS STARTED TO EXPAND (RVM ESTIMATED AT MORE THAN 20 MN). A
LARGER AND LARGER STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
FEW YEARS (POSSIBLY LINKED TO A FIRST CYCLE OF REPLACEMENT OF THE
EYEWALL), ENLARGING SIGNIFICANTLY THE ZONE OF INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM
(SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT DISTANCE)

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :

- MAURITIUS AND REUNION ISLAND : A DEGRADATION SHOULD BE SET UP ON
MAURITIUS THEN REUNION FROM TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE HEART OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD PASS MORE IN THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN PERIPHERY ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND
UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING: THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW STRONG THAT THE
ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY WINDS OF GALE FORCE (GUSTS TO 90-110 KM/H ON
THE COAST BEING ABLE TO EXCEED 120 KM/H ON THE INHABITED HIGHS IN
PARTICULAR IN REUNION). IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE TO HAVE STORM FORCE WINDS (WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH
120-130 KM/H GUSTS, 150 KM/H POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION IN
PARTICULAR). THE CUMULATED RAINFALL CAN LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24H
ON MAURITIUS AND THE COASTAL AREAS OF REUNION. MUCH MORE IMPORTANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RELIEF OF REUNION (+500 MM IN 24H
POSSIBLE). A VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 4M IN
AVERAGE HEIGHT AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF
THE SEA LEVEL, ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE CENTRAL EASTERN REGION
(IN A FIRST LARGE ESTIMATION, BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE
NORTH AND FARAFANGANA IN THE SOUTH). WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF
RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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