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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 2 (batsirai) 
Message-ID: <20220201064759.8563D1C0EEE@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 06:47:59 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 010632
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/2/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 2 (BATSIRAI)

2.A POSITION 2022/02/01 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 61.2 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 295 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 70 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/02/01 18 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 370 SW: 345 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/02/02 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 345 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/02/02 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 56.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 350 SW: 325 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55

48H: 2022/02/03 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 54.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 415 NW: 325
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 215 SW: 215 NW: 215
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

60H: 2022/02/03 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 465 SW: 405 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 165
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

72H: 2022/02/04 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 415 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/02/05 06 UTC: 19.2 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 510 SW: 315 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 230 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/02/06 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 47.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 305 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 100 NW: 65

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

AFTER A WEAKENING LAST NIGHT, THE BATSIRAI CLOUD PATTERN HAS
IMPROVED, PRESENTING AGAIN AN EYE ON THE LAST MICROWAVE SSMIS OF
0026Z.
THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR
ON THE SYSTEM, ALLOWING A NEW INTENSIFICATION.

BATSIRAI IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS
COMING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TODAY, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE EQUATOR TO THE NORTHEAST, IT
SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY. ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, IT WILL CIRCULATE CLOSE TO THE NORTH OF
MAURITIUS AND REUNION WHILE A WEAK RIDGE OF MID-TROPICAL PRESSURE
TRANSITS TEMPORARILY TO THE SOUTH. FROM THURSDAY, THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE WILL FADE, ALLOWING A RESUMPTION OF A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

WHILE THE CIMSS IS NOW ANALYZING A DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS
WEAKENED A BIT AT 20 KT (00Z) AND A SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THAT HAS
INCREASED, THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST
HOURS. THIS CONSTRAINT SHOULD STILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, BUT WITH A MORE LIMITED IMPACT, BECAUSE OF THE SPEED OF
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE AXIS OF
THE RIDGE OF HIGH ALTITUDE WHICH, COMBINED WITH OTHER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS, SHOULD FAVOR A MORE DEFINITE
RE-INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN FAVORABLE UNTIL THE
ARRIVAL OVER MADAGASCAR. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY RELATED TO ONE OR
MORE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE THEN LIKELY. THE LOW
PREDICTABILITY OF THESE MECHANISMS MAINTAINS AN UNCERTAINTY ON THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
 A LARGER AND LARGER STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED IN THE
NEXT FEW YEARS (POSSIBLY LINKED TO A FIRST CYCLE OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT) SIGNIFICANTLY ENLARGING THE SYSTEM'S ZONE OF INFLUENCE
(SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT A DISTANCE)

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LANDS :
- MAURITIUS AND REUNION : A DEGRADATION SHOULD SET UP ON MAURITIUS
THEN REUNION FROM TUESDAY EVENING. IF THE HEART OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
PASS MORE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS, SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE PERIPHERY
ARE TO BE FEARED. THESE BAD WEATHER CAN EXTEND UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING:
THE PROBABILITIES ARE NOW STRONG THAT THE ISLANDS ARE CONCERNED BY
WINDS OF GALE FORCE (GUSTS TO 90-110 KM/H ON THE COAST BEING ABLE TO
EXCEED 120 KM/H ON THE INHABITED HIGHS IN PARTICULAR IN REUNION). IT
IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE TO HAVE STORM
FORCE WINDS (WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH 120-130 KM/H GUSTS, 150 KM/H
POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHLANDS OF REUNION IN PARTICULAR). THE CUMULATED
RAINFALL CAN LOCALLY EXCEED 100 MM IN 24H ON MAURITIUS AND THE
COASTAL AREAS OF REUNION. MUCH MORE IMPORTANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON THE RELIEF OF REUNION (+500/600 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE). A
VERY DEGRADED SEA STATE WITH WAVES OF MORE THAN 5M IN AVERAGE HEIGHT
AND AN ABNORMAL RISE OF SOME TENS OF CENTIMETERS OF THE SEA LEVEL,
ARE EXPECTED ON THE EXPOSED COASTS.
THESE FORECASTS STILL NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AND PEOPLE ARE INVITED TO
FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.

- MADAGASCAR : CYCLONE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WEEK ON
THE EAST COAST, POTENTIALLY STILL AT A DANGEROUS STAGE. THE
PROBABILITY OF IMPACT IS INCREASING FOR THE CENTRAL EASTERN REGION
(IN A FIRST LARGE ESTIMATION, BETWEEN SAINTE-MARIE ISLAND IN THE
NORTH AND FARAFANGANA IN THE SOUTH). WITH A POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF
RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE REGIONS
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.=

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