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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 06:53:04 +0000
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773 
AXAU21 ABRF 010650
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0650 UTC 01/02/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.0S
Longitude: 152.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east (090 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots (65 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/1200: 15.0S 153.2E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  998
+12:  01/1800: 15.0S 153.7E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  998
+18:  02/0000: 15.0S 154.2E:     085 (155):  035  (065):  998
+24:  02/0600: 15.2S 154.8E:     100 (185):  035  (065):  998
+36:  02/1800: 15.6S 156.0E:     125 (230):  035  (065):  998
+48:  03/0600: 16.3S 157.4E:     160 (295):  030  (055): 1001
+60:  03/1800: 17.3S 159.4E:     185 (345):  030  (055): 1002
+72:  04/0600: 18.4S 161.6E:     200 (365):  030  (055): 1003
+96:  05/0600: 20.2S 165.2E:     280 (520):  025  (045): 1005
+120: 06/0600: 22.2S 168.0E:     360 (660):  025  (045): 1004
REMARKS:
Position is based on animated VIS imagery and an early morning microwave pass
at 0020UTC. The microwave pass showed little deep convection near the centre
and poor organisation. Since then VIS imagery has shown an increase in
convection near the centre. 

Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band with approximately 0.2 to 0.3 wrap.
DT is 2.0. MET is 2.0 based on a 24 hour W- trend, PAT not adjusted. Final T is
2.0 with CI held at 2.5. NESDIS ADT guidance is at CI 2.7 / 39 knots (1 minute
mean) and CIMSS ADT is at CI 2.6/ 37 knots ( 1minute mean). Intensity held at
35 knots, with structure (gales in northern quadrants only) likewise based on
the 19UTC HY-2B pass.  

The environment is only marginally favourable for the next 24 hours or so and
it is possible the low may briefly reach tropical cyclone strength in that time
frame. The system continues to receive moist low level monsoonal inflow, and
lies in an area of diffluent upper level flow north of an upper trough to the
south. However, moderate ESE deep layer wind shear coupled with dry air to the
south may limit development. As a small system, 16U will respond more rapidly
to changes in environmental conditions.  

There is strong confidence in an ESE track under the influence of mid-level
steering and low level monsoonal flow. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 01/1330 UTC.


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