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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220201083551.64E101C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 08:35:51 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 010835
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 06N80W to 04N95W. The 
ITCZ extends from 04N95W to 04N101W to 08N118W. It resumes from
08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 125W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters off
Mexico with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. 
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the Gulf of California and 4 to
6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure west of California 
combined with low pressure developing over the SW United States 
and Mexico will produce fresh to strong NW winds and building 
seas over the waters west of Baja California Norte tonight and 
Wed. This will also help for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf 
of California from the middle to end of the week. The next gale- 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is forecast to 
begin Fri. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region 
with seas in the 5-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds and seas 
to 6 ft are over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and 
seas of 4-5 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo 
region will diminish today, with moderate winds prevailing the 
remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of 
Panama today will diminish to gentle to moderate winds through 
the remainder of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface trough extends from 30N135W to 22N140W. High pressure 
of 1038 mb is centered north of the area near 44N137W. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the 
surface trough is supporting fresh to strong winds over the NW 
waters, with seas to 9 ft over this area. Elsewhere, gentle to 
moderate winds and seas in the 4-7 ft range prevail. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will remain fairly 
stationary today, with the surface trough slowly shifting
westward. This will maintain fresh to strong winds with building
seas N of 20N today. The area of high pressure will weaken 
slightly midweek while the high center drifts southward. During
this time, the surface trough will weaken as it shifts westward 
away from the forecast area. The southward shift of the high 
center will shift the fresh to strong winds southward to cover 
the waters between 10N and 20N and W of 120W from the middle to 
end of the week.

$$
AL


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