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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 11:35:52 +0000
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147 
AWIO20 FMEE 011124

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/02/01 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


New warning WTIO20 and WTIO30 025/02 issued at 06UTC on the Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI.

Next warnings issued at 12UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial monsoon flow is present over the entire width of the basin, especially west of 65E. This moist and warm flow feeds the tropical cyclone BATSIRAI located at 270 MN northeast of Mauritius, as well as a monsoon trough (MT) located around 18oS east of 66oE. Convective activity is located around the tropical cyclone BATSIRAI, as well as on the equatorial side of the MT, in the vicinity of a large clockwise circulation center located east of the cyclone. Nested in the eastern part of the MT, a broad lowel level turning is detected.

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI :

Position at 10 UTC : 17.1S / 60.5E

Movement : West-North-West 6 kt

Average maximum wind speed over 10min: 75kt

Minimum central pressure : 965 hPa

For more information, refer to bulletins WTIO21 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and following.

Over the eastern basin:

Around 21S/77E, the 0130Z HY-2B and the 0030Z HY-2C swaths have detected within the TM, east of cyclone BATSIRAI, a weak elongated low pressure circulation locally with near gale force wind in its southern semicircle, mainly by gradient effect with the subtropical ridge. In the classical imagery, the low-level vortex is exposed and devoid of deep convection. Moreover, the CIMSS analysis depicte dry air aloft and a weak low level. In the next 2 to 3 days, this large low area will move northward following the expansion of the subtropical ridge, and will regain a better organization of low layers but will still remain rather elongated and within which two low could develop and compete. By the end of the week, a single vortex could remain and give very local gale force wind in its southern semicircle.

This scenario is mainly suggested by the last numerical outputs but uncertainties remain on the timing of the intensification. The eventual deepening of this system would be away from inhabited land.

There is a moderate risk that another moderate tropical storm may develop over the eastern part of the basin from thursday onwards.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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