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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Australia
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Date: Tue, 1 Feb 2022 12:47:41 +0000
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368 
AXAU21 ABRF 011245
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1245 UTC 01/02/2022
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 16U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 153.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: east southeast (117 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 998 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  01/1800: 15.5S 154.1E:     050 (090):  030  (055):  999
+12:  02/0000: 15.3S 154.7E:     065 (115):  030  (055):  999
+18:  02/0600: 15.5S 155.4E:     075 (140):  030  (055):  999
+24:  02/1200: 15.8S 156.1E:     085 (160):  030  (055):  999
+36:  03/0000: 16.6S 157.9E:     130 (240):  030  (055):  999
+48:  03/1200: 17.6S 160.2E:     150 (280):  030  (055): 1000
+60:  04/0000: 18.9S 162.7E:     165 (305):  030  (055): 1001
+72:  04/1200: 19.8S 165.2E:     185 (340):  030  (055): 1000
+96:  05/1200: 21.8S 168.8E:     265 (490):  030  (055):  999
+120: 06/1200: 24.1S 170.2E:     340 (640):  035  (065):  993
REMARKS:
Position is based on extrapolation from 0830Z scat pass and has low confidence.
 0830Z scat pass showed maximum of 25 knots in northern quadrants. 24 hour
comparison shows poorer organisation than yesterday and there is no curvature
evident in deep convection. Although some environmental factors are favourable
(high SST, low vertical shear) other factors (strong monsoon forcing in
adjacent areas, dry air on southern side) are unfavourable.  Other than a
minority of GEFS ensemble members, 00Z model runs do not indicate development
in the next 48 hours.  

Unable to determine a DT. MET and PAT are consistent with 0830 scat pass.
Intensity estimate set at 30 knots. 

No further bulletins will be issued unless the system shows signs of
intensification. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it intensifies.


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